Yankees vs. Red Sox: Friday, July 26, 2024

YANKEES VS. RED SOX: FRIDAY, JULY 26, 2024 — Nestor Cortes Jr. has to be thinking one thing when he takes the ball here: thank goodness it’s against a different lineup than Tampa Bay.

Cortes Jr.’s past two starts have both come against the Rays, and neither one went well at all. He didn’t make it out of the fifth inning either time, and he gave up a combined 11 runs. The big question is whether this was a sign of things to come, or if it’s limited to the Rays. Cortes Jr. has lost four starts in a row to Tampa Bay, but he’s pitched well against most other opponents. Out of his past eight non-Tampa opponents, only the Dodgers managed to get more than three runs off him.

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And against this Boston team, three runs or less should be more than enough to do the job. The Red Sox haven’t been keeping runs from scoring at all, even before giving up 20 to Colorado in their previous series finale. In Boston’s previous four games, the Red Sox had given up a combined 25 runs, and even that was skewed by one shutout.

Boston’s other big problem right now is that it hasn’t taken advantage of home field advantage. The Red Sox actually have a losing record at Fenway Park, offsetting their strong record on the road. If they’re going to make a run at the Yankees and the Orioles, they’ve got to start winning at home.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Friday, July 26 at 7:10 p.m. EST

Where: Fenway Park, Boston

Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes Jr., NYY (4-9, 3.99 ERA, 111 K’s) vs. Brayan Bello, BOS (10-5, 5.27 ERA, 92 K’s)

Public Bets: 61% on New York

Public Money: 64% on New York

Yankees vs. Red Sox In-Season Trends

Would you believe that the Yankees have just one series win in their past 11 tries? Crazy as it sounds, it’s true, and it was against Baltimore. New York isn’t getting swept most times, but it’s also managing to lose two out of three and allow the teams behind it to catch up. That’s exactly what Boston has done, and with a sweep here, the Red Sox would close to just a game back of the Yankees for second place.

Boston’s just glad to see its trip to the West Coast end. The Red Sox took it on the chin from Los Angeles and Colorado, but they had been surging before that swing. Prior to that pratfall out west, the Red Sox had won four straight series.

Players to Watch

Jarren Duran has been seeing the ball well lately, and the results show. In his past eight games, he’s averaging two hits per game and has had six multi-hit games.

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Aaron Judge didn’t have a good series against the Mets, but he had been hitting well against AL East pitching in the previous two series. If he gets back to what he was doing against Baltimore and Tampa Bay, the Yankees’ lineup becomes far more fearsome.

The Prediction

The Yankees appear to be off, and Cortes Jr. just isn’t getting the job done as of late. That leads me to think the over is the way to play this. There’s little reason to expect that either team is going to excel at run prevention in this game, especially with this matchup. I’ll lean toward the home team in what should be a higher scoring game.