Yankees vs. Orioles Expert Pick and Prediction – April 30, 2024 

YANKEES VS. ORIOLES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 30, 2024 — With a more balanced schedule in place, each game inside the division means much more than it did. This series, therefore, is a measuring stick for both the Yankees and Orioles. So far, Baltimore’s the one who’s out in front.

The Orioles arrived in this series with some questions, given that they’d only played three games inside the AL East and have struggled to put together winning streaks this year. The pitching staff has been inconsistent, but the Orioles make up for it by bashing the ball. And they’ve done that to the tune of 5.47 runs per game, more than good enough to win most nights.

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The Yankees are just behind Baltimore, but probably a lot happier with that than the Orioles are with their position. New York knows that it hasn’t been anywhere near what it can be. With Aaron Judge struggling and the Yankees down Gerrit Cole, this season could have cratered in a hurry. Instead, the Yankees have more than held their own. New York’s pitching has been second only to Boston thus far (and the Red Sox have faced some easy opponents early), allowing the Yankees to thrive in April.

But can New York get a handle on Baltimore? It’s easy to remember that this series used to be close to three automatic wins for the Yankees whenever the teams would get together. But the Orioles have steadily built themselves into the American League’s best roster, and they won the series and the AL East from the Yankees last season. If New York wants to avoid the wild-card route this season, it’s going to have to figure out how to win in Baltimore.

The Odds 

First Pitch

When: Tuesday, April 30 at 6:30 p.m. EST 

Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore

Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes Jr., NYY (1-2, 3.50 ERA, 32 K’s) vs. Dean Kremer, BAL (1-2, 4.61 ERA, 27 K’s)

Public Bets: 70% on New York

Public Money: 85% on New York

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 30th, 2024

Yankees vs. Orioles In-Season Trends 

For the Yankees, it’s either been an offensive explosion or a whole lot of nothing at the plate, with almost no in-between. Out of their past seven defeats, five of them have seen the Yankees score one run or fewer, while New York is 7-2 in its past 14 games when it plates at least two runs. Against the Orioles, it was more of the same hitting issues; they got shut out in the series opener after scoring 36 runs in three games in Milwaukee.

The Orioles are ideal for aggressive bettors because they rarely win one-run games. Baltimore has just two wins by a single run this season; the other 16 have all covered the run line. For a team that has only recently become a contender, the Orioles have certainly embraced being the favorite.

Players to Watch

Gunnar Henderson has been pounding the ball as of late. He leads the Birds with 10 home runs on the season, and he’s hit four in his past six games. If you want to try someone on a home run prop, you’re getting +450 odds on Henderson right now, a pretty nice value for someone who is seeing the ball very well.

Aaron Judge might be coming out of his slump and getting back to the player the Yankees know he can be. He homered twice in Milwaukee (but then again, the entire Yankee lineup hit well in Wisconsin) and has six hits in his past three games. If Judge starts swinging a hot bat, the Yankees are dangerous.

The Pick 

Taking the over makes a lot of sense here. The wind will be decent but not strong and heading out to the scoreboard in right field. That makes for a high potential for doubles, as the 21-foot wall should help keep the ball in the park but give left-handed batters plenty to shoot for.

Dean Kremer hasn’t yet shown that he can pitch in Baltimore, as he’s gotten rocked in both of his home starts. Because of that, I’d shy away from the game pick here. If you do want to take the Orioles, back them on the run line, given Baltimore’s tendency to not play tight games. But I think the Yankees make more sense to even the series here.