Yankees vs. Dodgers Expert Pick and Prediction – June 2, 2023

YANKEES VS. DODGERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 2, 2023 — As MLB’s two flagship franchises face off, it’s clear that this is a matchup of patience vs. power. Neither the Dodgers nor the Yankees have terribly effective lineups for hitting for average, but both have the ability to score runs in bunches when they’re hitting.

The Yankees tend to be pure power, as they rank fourth in the majors in home runs. But when they aren’t hitting the ball out of the park, they’re not getting the job done.

Out of 273 runs on the season, 87 were simply a home run. The Yankees have just 74 doubles on the season, making them one of two teams in the majors to have more home runs than doubles.

The Dodgers are different. They can hit for power, having the second-most home runs of anyone in the majors, but they tend to wait pitchers out rather than free swinging.

The Dodgers lead the majors in walks with 245, because they’re not willing to get themselves out unnecessarily. For the most part, their patience has paid off, especially when they’re at home. After a slow start to the season, they’re tied with Arizona for the best record in the National League — and they’re a half-game better than the Yankees. 

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The Odds

First Pitch

When: Friday, June 2nd at 10:10 p.m. EDT

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino, NYY (0-0, 1.59 ERA, 10 K’s) vs. Clayton Kershaw, LAD (6-4, 3.32 ERA, 75K’s) 

Public Bets: 61% on Los Angeles

Public Money: 53% on New York

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 2nd, 2023

New York vs. Los Angeles In-Season Trends

The Dodgers haven’t lost a series at Dodger Stadium since April, and they’ve mostly ripped through their past five opponents in Los Angeles, going 13-2 in that stretch. Los Angeles has dominated at home ever since the Dodgers became one of the game’s best-run franchises, as they tend to win close to 75% of their home games. They also seldom lose two in a row, going 39-15 in their past 54 games after a loss.

The Yankees have had plenty of success against the National League, going 9-3 in 12 games against the senior circuit. However, this marks a change in opponent quality, as none of the four NL teams the Yankees have faced have a record over .500. Of the four NL opponents New York has seen, the best has been San Francisco, which sits at an even 28-28.

Players to Watch

The Dodgers’ recent play is good news for them. The bad news is that as the Dodgers have ascended after their slow start, Clayton Kershaw has gone in the opposite direction. Early in the year, Kershaw was the man Los Angeles needed to hand the ball to when it needed a win. In April, Kershaw was dominant, never failing to get through six innings and holding four of five opponents to two runs or less.

That hasn’t continued. Only one of Kershaw’s past five starts has even seen him throw one pitch past the fifth inning. In that stretch, he’s been good for strikeouts but not for run prevention. Three of those five starts saw him give up four earned runs, and only one resulted in a Dodger victory.

When it comes to the Yankees’ offense, there’s not a lot of thinking required. Aaron Judge continues to launch the ball out of the park, hitting four home runs in his past four games. Three of those came in Seattle, where it’s tough to hit it out no matter who’s on the mound. Whenever Judge swings the bat, there’s a chance for a big hit.

The Pick

Kershaw’s struggles concern me. He’s still missing bats pretty well, as he’s gotten at least six strikeouts in eight straight starts. But when he doesn’t miss bats, things haven’t gone well. Over Kershaw’s past five starts, when the hitter doesn’t strike out, he’s got a .519 on-base percentage.

Against the Yankees’ power, that’s trouble. New York doesn’t hit for average, but when the Yankees connect, the ball travels. Kershaw will likely get his K’s, but the Yankees offer more value here.