Xavier vs. Seton Hall Expert Pick and Prediction – February 14, 2024

XAVIER VS. SETON HALL EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 14, 2024 — It’s not an elimination game yet, but it’s close. Seton Hall’s got a stronger record on paper, but the committee is starting to see that the Pirates haven’t beaten anyone but Georgetown and DePaul in a month.

To make matters worse, Seton Hall comes in with zero momentum. The Pirates just got drilled at Villanova, making it four losses in six games. The wins over Marquette and Connecticut are keeping Seton Hall in the conversation, but they feel so far away from where this team currently sits.

Related: Miami vs. Clemson Pick and Prediction

The Musketeers keep getting close without getting the job done. Four of Xavier’s six Big East losses came by seven points or less, and the Muskies gave credible efforts in losses to Houston and Purdue. (They also lost by 43 at Connecticut, but that’s been the only disaster on the profile since early December.) Xavier’s also not dead yet, but it has to win one of these games eventually if it’s going to play meaningful basketball in March after New York.

The first matchup between these teams wasn’t close, as Xavier earned a 20-point win three days after Seton Hall upset Connecticut. The Pirates should be more focused this time around, but if they can’t start making shots again, it might not matter.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, February 14 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.

TV: FSN

Public Bets: 84% on Seton Hall

Public Money: 81% on Seton Hall

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 14th, 2024.

Xavier vs. Seton Hall In-Season Trends

Good teams win, great teams cover, and Seton Hall’s not doing either. The Pirates have gone 1-5 ATS in this stretch, with the only cover coming against the walking corpse that is DePaul. The Pirates’ offense has failed to meet its projected total in five straight games, and it would have been six if the loss to Creighton hadn’t gone triple overtime.

Related: Angell’s Sports Analysis for February 14

Xavier had been a certain over because of its lack of defense, as the Musketeers went over in eight straight from Jan. 10 to Feb. 3. Prior to getting a second shot at Villanova, the Musketeers hadn’t held anyone to less than 65 points in Big East play. Even with the double matchups with the Wildcats, the Musketeers have played 13 games in Big East play and given up more than 65 on 10 occasions.

The Difference-Makers

When Quincy Olivari is on, he’s capable of inflicting a lot of damage. Against Seton Hall in the first meeting, Olivari led all scorers with 29 points, and he’s shown that was no fluke by dropping 43 on DePaul earlier this month.

Jaden Bediako grabbed seven offensive rebounds in the first meeting for the Pirates, but he’s been pretty inconsistent on the glass in Big East play. Seton Hall snagged 19 offensive rebounds in the first meeting, in large part because they couldn’t hit the Ohio River when the teams met in Cincinnati.

The Pirates are usually strong on second-chance points, and they found out the hard way that trying to outshoot Xavier from deep will not work. They have to get more out of Bediako in the low post.

The Pick

Seton Hall seems to be fading down the stretch. The Pirates haven’t looked good against anyone but DePaul, and everyone looks good against the Blue Demons. Xavier, outside of one bad night against Connecticut, has given a credible showing against the Big East’s upper echelon.

The Musketeers won this matchup by 20 because they deserved to, and they’ve been playing better basketball. They should be the choice.