Wurth 400 NASCAR Preview and Picks
WURTH 400 NASCAR PREVIEW AND PICKS – The NASCAR circus heads to Delaware today for the Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. Known as “The Monster Mile,” it is exactly that. A one mile long, high- banked concrete oval will be the track today.
Probably the most obvious comp, for the purposes of understanding who is likely to do well on this surface and type of track is at Nashville Superspeedway.
The high-banking means that guys are usually cooking coming off these turns, making for some very high-speed racing.
Beyond the speed these guys can get up to, the surface is something of a rarity for NASCAR in that they are racing on concrete instead of the typical asphalt surfaces they usually race on. It means that the tires will wear down slightly less during the race which will make for interesting pit strategies, particularly if guys try to push it on slick tires.
Let’s get to the picks.
Wurth 400 – Expert Pick
DENNY HAMLIN (+900) is my favorite play of the guys towards the top of the board. He’s been really fast so far this year, but he’s been the victim of some bad luck and weird strategy decisions that have masked what his speed reflects. He’s good at this track and we’re catching a pretty decent price for a driver of his caliber.
I can’t talk myself into betting KYLE LARSON (+450), so that’s out for me despite his results here being absolutely ridiculous. It’s weird, but I think I’d be more content to just bet him top-3 at +125 or top-5 at -165. At least that way if something squirrely happens towards the end of the race, you’re covered. Nobody is getting rich on outrights that are +450, so I’m more willing to acknowledge his greatness on the more conservative props.
Wurth 400 – Longshot
ROSS CHASTAIN (+1400) is about as high as I’m willing to go in the outright market today. I just don’t see that longshot bomb coming from the clouds today. We’re getting some value here because he’s had some issues learning the surface here. His career average finish position at Dover is an extremely modest 25.3 in eight races.
Last year, there were some signs that he figured the Monster Mile out when he finished 3rd and led for almost a quarter of the race.
He was similarly bad at Nashville (our closest track comp) before he started figuring things out.
Chastain can be a bit of a slow learner, but once he figures a track out, he’s dangerous. I’m willing to bite on this bigger number with the suspicion that’s he’s going to continue to improve here.
Wurth 400 prop pick
DANIEL SUAREZ +140 (TOP 10)
Now, I’m not saying that Suarez can get this thing done and cross the finish line first, but let’s have a little respect for a guy who has finished in the top-10 in half of his starts on this track. He hasn’t always run the best equipment here, but things are different now. I’ll expect him to be pesky in this race. He might not win, but finishing in the top-10 is something he’s proven capable of multiple times. I’ll bite on the plus money here.
