Women’s Conference Tournament Preview: Big East
WOMEN’S CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PREVIEW: BIG EAST — At this point, you pretty much pencil in Connecticut’s name as the winner of its conference tournament. Quite frankly, you could probably get away with writing it in pen.
You have to go all the way back to 2013 for the last time that Geno Auriemma’s Huskies didn’t win their conference tournament, whether that was in the American Athletic Conference or the Big East. The last time UConn wasn’t a conference tournament champion, it was because Notre Dame went unbeaten in the Big East and got the better of the Huskies in a classic final.
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But the Irish are in the ACC now, and Muffet McGraw isn’t even coaching anymore. And without the Irish around to match them, the Huskies have collected title after title after title. Given that Connecticut has lost all of three conference games in the past 12 seasons, the odds of anyone but the Huskies cutting the nets down are pretty long.
Details
When: Friday, March 7 to Monday, March 10
Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, Conn.
TV: FS1, FS2 and Fox
Who’s the Favorite?
Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd make it clear: there’s UConn and there’s everyone else in this event. The closest they’ve come to losing was Creighton by 11 points in Omaha. Their losses all year have been USC, Notre Dame and Tennessee.
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Creighton is likely to get its third chance at the Huskies in the Big East final. It’s not likely to go a lot better than the first two. The Bluejays won’t get embarrassed, but their average margin of defeat to UConn this year is 15 points. That’s about where the final will probably end up.
Who Needs A Good Showing?
The good news for Seton Hall is that the Pirates finished third, which means that they don’t have to face UConn until the Big East final. Marquette also had a chance to get off the bubble, but the Golden Eagles drew unlucky no. 4 and Connecticut in the semifinals, which means they’re almost certainly cooked. (Yes, Connecticut has to face Butler or St. John’s in the quarterfinals first. The Huskies’ average margin of victory against those two was 39 points. An upset is not going to happen.)
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Seton Hall lost twice to Creighton, but one of those was only by eight points. As long as the Pirates survive against DePaul in the quarterfinals, they’ll have a shot to play their way into the finals and the NCAA tournament. Beating Creighton and losing respectably to UConn might be enough.
Who’s In the Best Form?
The obvious answer is Connecticut, which might be the hottest team in the nation. Beyond that, it’s probably Seton Hall, which arrives having won its final three league games.
The Pick
There’s no value in betting this, because we all know what’s going to happen. This is why the Big East is only a two-bid league: Creighton is the only other team that really takes women’s basketball seriously. The Ivy League might actually end up with more bids than the Big East (in part thanks to Princeton beating Seton Hall), which is both a credit to that league and an indictment of the bottom half of this one.
That’s a lot of words to say what we all know will happen.
