WNBA TITLE FUTURES: BEST ODDS AND PICKS – JULY 2024
WNBA TITLE FUTURES BEST ODDS AND PICKS—JULY 2024—Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. With the league on hiatus for the next month due to the Olympics, we have shifted our focus to discussing players who are the odds-on favorites to win individual awards, such as MVP and Rookie of the Year.
With that in mind, we now take a look at the teams that have the best title odds following a memorable first half of the season.
As you may recall, the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty battled it out in last year’s WNBA Finals, with the Aces winning that series 3-1. Are these same two squads head and shoulders above the rest of the playing field this season?
Let’s take a look and find out.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 26, 2024
Las Vegas Aces (+160)
Considering the Aces are the defending champions, it makes sense that they are atop the leaderboard in the title odds category. However, this team did not have a great start to the 2024 campaign. With Chelsea Gray nursing a foot injury she sustained in last year’s finals series, Las Vegas was just 6-6 through its first 12 contests.
Upon Gray’s return to the team’s rotation, though, the Aces have found their groove, posting a 10-2 mark over their last 12 games. Las Vegas is a mediocre team from a defensive perspective, as they rank 7th in scoring defense and fifth in defensive rating. On the flip side of the narrative, the Aces are the top-scoring team in the association and have the second-highest efficiency rating.
Sure, Las Vegas is in the No. 5 spot in the league playoff race, thanks to its .500 start. But with their rotation now intact, look for them to be in the title odds race for the remainder of the season.
New York Liberty (+170)
After finishing runner-up in 2023, the Liberty picked up where they left off last season. They kicked off 2024 with 12 wins across their first 14 games before suffering a 99-93 loss to the Phoenix Mercury on June 18.
Following that setback, New York has won eight of its last ten games, including a four-game winning streak to close out the first half of the season.
From an offensive standpoint, the Liberty are ranked second in scoring and first in efficiency. At the other end of the court, New York is ranked third in scoring defense, and it has the fourth-lowest defensive rating in the league.
Even more important, the Liberty have the best record in the association at 21-4. On August 15, New York will face the defending champions for the second time this season. The Liberty won the first matchup 90-82. Now that both teams are in midseason form, it will be interesting to see which squad comes out on top this time around.
Connecticut Sun (+750)
The Sun got off to a hot start, to say the least. They were undefeated through nine games and won 13 of their first 14 contests. However, Connecticut has cooled off a bit since that solid start, going 5-5 across their last 10 outings, including two losses in their last three games to close out the first half of the season.
Ironically, both of those losses came against the New York Liberty, which dropped Connecticut to 0-3 against its conference rivals. The Sun have the eighth-best scoring average while ranking third in offensive efficiency. But from a defensive standpoint, they are holding opponents to a league-low 72.9 points per contest, and they have the third-best defensive rating.
Additionally, Connecticut is limiting the opposition to 30.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc, which is the second-best mark in the WNBA. So, although they have had their struggles as of late, this team should continue to be included in the title contender conversation during the second half of the season.
Seattle Storm (+900)
Let’s be honest: the Seattle Storm was not on anyone’s list of playoff contenders when the season began. This sentiment is justified by the fact they won just 11 games in 2023 and finished seven games out of the final playoff spot.
The 2024 campaign has been an entirely different story. Following a 1-3 start, Seattle went on a six-game tear before suffering a 19-point loss to the Minnesota Lynx on June 9. The Storm followed that up with a 6-2 record over their next eight games before an 88-84 loss against the Chicago Sky.
Since that last setback, however, Seattle has won four of its last five games, closing the first half of their season with a three-game winning streak. The Storm are a top-five team offensive team and they play well at the other end of the floor as well.
They have the second-best defensive rating in the league. They are holding opponents to 41.6 percent shooting overall and 31 percent from three-point range, good enough for the third-lowest opponent conversion rate in both categories. While it is doubtful that the Storm will be one of the last two teams vying for this year’s title, they are a team that we should keep a watchful eye on going forward.
Minnesota Lynx (+900)
In 2023, the Lynx finished two games below the .500 mark at 19-21. However, this group is noticeably better than a year ago. In fact, Minnesota produced 12 wins in its first 15 contests. Unfortunately, the team has cooled off, dropping two of its last three outings en route to a 5-5 mark over its last 10 games.
Although the Lynx are not an offensive juggernaut by any means (ranked seventh in both scoring and offensive efficiency), this team is special from a defensive perspective. For example, Minnesota has the second-best scoring defense and the best defensive rating in the league.
Additionally, opponents are shooting just 40.4 percent overall and 28.1 percent from 3-point range, placing the Lynx at the top spot in both categories. Unfortunately, not all the news is good for Minnesota.
Napheesa Collier, who leads the team in scoring (20.0) and rebounding (10.2), went down with a foot injury and is expected to be out indefinitely.
She has been integral to the team’s defensive success this season. If she misses a substantial portion of the second half, it will be a huge blow to Minnesota’s championship aspirations.
