Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche Pick and Prediction – April 28, 2024

WINNIPEG JETS VS. COLORADO AVALANCHE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 28, 2024 — The more things changed, the more they stayed the same in Game 3. Once again, Colorado got pucks to the net and Winnipeg tried to answer with quality over quantity. Once again, quantity won out and Colorado pulled away in the third period while squeezing the life out of the Jets’ offense.

And Winnipeg now finds itself in a tight spot. This series is far from over, but the Jets have a long road back to get back into it. Above all else, Winnipeg has to find a way to keep the shot totals from getting excessive. The one thing the Jets had over the Avalanche in the regular season meetings was that they never let the shot totals get out of hand. In three regular season meetings, Colorado outshot Winnipeg every time, but never by more than seven attempts and never getting more than 34 shots on goal.

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This series has not followed what we saw in the regular season. Colorado has outshot Winnipeg badly in this series, posting 16 more shots in Game 3 than the Jets. The Avalanche are having little trouble getting good looks at Connor Hellebuyck, who isn’t proving up to the task of stopping what’s been…well, an avalanche of shot attempts.

Winnipeg has two potential paths to victory. The first is throwing Colorado off its game and grinding them down, which has been zero-for-three to this point. The second is throwing caution to the wind and outscoring them. That worked in Game 1 because the Avalanche defense had a bad day, but there’s no sign of it working past this game.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Saturday, April 27 at 2:30 p.m. EST

Where: Ball Arena, Denver

TV: TNT

Public Bets: 61% on Colorado

Public Money: 70% on Colorado

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 28th, 2024

Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche In-Season Trends

Colorado has been dominant in Denver all year, going 31-9-1 during the regular season. Of course, two of the nine came against Winnipeg, so it’s not like the Jets are completely helpless at altitude. Winnipeg won both meetings in Denver in the regular season by a combined 11-2, which was why the Jets came into the series favored.

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One thing that’s quite different from the way the Jets normally play is the totals. Winnipeg was an under team all year, as it was rare for the Jets to get too far away from five goals total per night. Against Colorado, the under has now failed to cash in eight straight games.

The over has hit in five of six meetings this year, and the one exception was a 4-2 Jets victory that pushed the total.

Players to Watch

So far, so good for getting Nathan MacKinnon favorable matchups in Denver. It took a little time, but the Avalanche got MacKinnon a goal and an assist on the power play in the third period to swing the momentum away from the Jets.

Just as important was Casey Mittelstadt getting involved in the offense. Mittelstadt hadn’t been a major player for Colorado since coming over from Buffalo, but he struck for three assists in Game 3. Adding his passing to the equation just makes the Avs tougher to beat.

Under normal circumstances, Kyle Connor would be permitted to have an off-night. He’d scored in 10 consecutive games, including both of the two games in Winnipeg to kick off this series. But Winnipeg can’t afford for anyone to be off right now. Connor went scoreless and posted a minus-3, which isn’t good enough by any stretch of the imagination.

The Pick

I don’t think Winnipeg is quite finished, but I don’t see them turning this around in Game 4. The Avalanche have controlled the play in all three games in this series, and the Jets seem to still be in regular-season mode while Colorado has raised its game.

Winnipeg doesn’t look capable of shutting down Colorado entirely right now, and that means the Jets will have to outscore the Avalanche. I think they figure it out in Game 5, but I’m not chancing it in Game 4.