Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche Pick and Prediction – April 26, 2024

WINNIPEG JETS VS. COLORADO AVALANCHE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 26, 2024 — This is not where the Jets wanted this series to be after two games in Manitoba. A split wasn’t ideal, but they could have managed that fine if it had been a defensive-heavy series. Having Connor Hellebuyck beaten for 11 goals in two games wasn’t part of Winnipeg’s plan.

That says that Colorado has dictated the flow and tempo of the series so far, and that was without the advantage of the second line change. Now the Avalanche get the luxury of getting Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen away from Winnipeg’s top defensive pairing and can further dictate the way the action flows.

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And that’s a real problem for the Peggers, because the Avalanche’s style is hard to handle. Colorado is at its best when it can dictate the flow of the game and knows that there will be a lot of shots at both ends. Winnipeg wants a slower, more methodical game that relies on its goaltenders. But if Hellebuyck can’t get above a .900 save percentage, the Jets are in peril.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Friday, April 26 at 10 p.m. EST

Where: Ball Arena, Denver

TV: TNT

Public Bets: 92% on Colorado

Public Money: 77% on Colorado

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 26th, 2024

Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche In-Season Trends

Winnipeg has mostly held the better of the play in this series, as the Jets tend to break out of their slow pace whenever they play Colorado. For the year, Winnipeg averages 3.2 goals per game; against the Avalanche, that number jumps to 5.2. And that’s why Winnipeg is 4-1 against Colorado this year, including two wins in Denver.

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It’s also why the over has jumped to 6.5 when most playoff games are at just 5.5. The Avs have essentially forced the Jets to play an attacking style of hockey when it matters most. The issue is that Winnipeg really doesn’t want to play that way and will still look to pick its spots. In Game 1, the Jets put just 23 pucks on net compared to 46 from the Avalanche, but Winnipeg managed to slot home seven. That luck might be hard to continue.

Players to Watch

One reason Winnipeg was so effective in the regular season was because of how balanced its scoring was. The Jets don’t have anyone who overwhelms opponents, but they have two solid lines that they can usually count on for points. That has not happened in this series. Sean Monahan, Nikolaj Ehlers and Tyler Toffoli combined for 84 goals in the regular season, but none has a marker in this series. The Jets cannot hope to beat Colorado unless both their top lines are contributing, especially now that the Avalanche get second change.

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This needs to be where Nathan MacKinnon really shines. His 140 points in the regular season were no fluke, and he’s shown up nicely with three points in Winnipeg. The Avs can get him favorable matchups in Denver, and he must take advantage of that.

The Pick

I came into this series high on Winnipeg, and while I’m not giving up on the Jets, I’m a bit shaken. Winnipeg’s success is based heavily on Hellebuyck and the defense. If that isn’t working and the second line isn’t scoring, the Jets go from a Cup contender to out of this series within six games.

The fact is, Colorado should be ahead two games in this series. That they aren’t is Winnipeg’s saving grace, but that only goes so far. The Jets have to turn this around fast if they’re going to stay in this series, and I don’t think they manage it in Game 3.