Will the Steelers Cover in Pivotal Home Game against the Jags?

PITTSBURGH, Pa – In the heart of the Steel City, the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) are ready to defend their turf against the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) in a high-stakes showdown.

After starting the season with a 1-2 record, the Jaguars have rolled off four straight wins after defeating the Saints on Thursday Night Football. The Jaguars come in well rested to face a Steelers team that is starting to build up momentum on the offensive side of the ball.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Sunday, 1:00 pm EST, October 29, 2023

Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

TV: CBS

Public Bets: Jaguars, 55%

Public Money: Even

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 29, 2023

Steelers Must Avoid a Slow Start.

While it’s been exciting watching the Steelers come back to win games this season, it’s about time for them to realize they are allowed to score first-half points. Coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t think they’re far away from achieving early success.

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“We just need to do routine things routinely at the early stages of the games,” Tomlin told reporters. When asked about scripting plays to start games he responded, “We’re not completely married to the script. Because some things are sight unseen, like some of the third-down things that the Rams defense was doing in the first half, for example. So, there’s a script we’re not completely married to it.”

The Steelers early play calling against the Rams was promising, it was the execution that was lacking, coupled with drive-killing penalties. Coordinator Matt Canada was more creative with his first-down play calls, which is encouraging, and needs to continue this week.

The team has the second lowest first-down conversion rate at 23.1%, scoring the sixth-fewest points per game and averaging the second-fewest net yards per game on offense. This team can’t count on the defense and T.J. Watt to continue to bail them out.   

Jaguars Looking for Fifth Straight Win.

Jacksonville managed to outlast New Orleans on the road in their last game on Thursday night. They lead their division and are looking to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

The Jaguars have a balanced attack on offense with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne leading the way. Jacksonville is 14th in the league in passing offense with 222.9 yards per game and 13th in rushing offense with 113.4 yards per contest.

Lawrence and company will need to keep this balance to avoid the Steelers vaunted pass rush from dominating the headlines. The Jaguars are ranked 16th in scoring defense giving up 20.9 per game and would like to see improvement on this side of the ball.

The Difference-Makers

We all know that T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith must wreak havoc with the pass rush to keep the Steelers in most games.

This is the week that quarterback Kenny Pickett must take the next step and play consistently for the entire game. The offensive line is coming off their best performance and needs to ignite the running game and protect Pickett. 

The Jags and Lawrence should attack a Steelers secondary that ranks 25th against the pass giving up 241 yards per game.

Christian Kirk (39 catches, team-high 474 yards, three TD) and Calvin Ridley (27 grabs, 368 yards, two TDs) look to take advantage of a secondary that can be exposed. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. leads the Jaguars on the ground with 127 carries for 506 yards and seven scores. 

The Pick

On paper the only factor that works in the Steelers favor is home-field advantage. The only statistic that would make you think that Pittsburgh has a chance is their 4-2 record.

The defense, which rightfully gets credit for this record, is ranked 25th or lower in every meaningful statistic. The bottom line is T.J. Watt is on the field and has a rotation of linebackers to keep him fresh.

Combine that with Kenny Pickett’s first 60-minute performance and Pittsburgh fans will go home happy.

Steelers win 27-18 and cover the 1.5 spread and the game hits the OVER.