Why We’re Excited for UFC 302

The main event for UFC 302 is an intriguing matchup, even though the oddsmakers give Islam Makhachev more than an 80% chance of winning. He is taking on longtime UFC veteran Dustin Poirier, who has fought for the title twice and held the interim belt before. Poirier has worked his way back to a title opportunity and is looking to cash in on what could be his final opportunity to achieve his ultimate goal of owning the lightweight belt. Read below to find out why we’re excited for UFC 302. 

It should be an intense fight for as long as it lasts, and let’s see how these men got to this bout.

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Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev has defended his lightweight title twice, albeit against the same opponent. He earned the strap by defeating Charles Oliveira by arm triangle in the second round of their UFC 280 title fight. He followed that by beating Alexander Volkanovski, who was looking to grab his second belt.

It was a close fight, and Volkanovski came on strong as the fight entered the championship rounds but could not do enough in the judge’s eyes to receive the decision. Many MMA fans and people within the organization thought that Volkanovski won the fight, but the judges gave the nod to Makhachev. The rematch occurred in February 2023 when Volkanovski took the fight on short notice but lost by first-round knockout, which gave Makhachev the proof he needed to silence the doubters.

Makhachev is now on a 13-fight winning streak, with his only loss (25-1) of his career coming at the hands of Adriano Martins by knockout in 2015. It was his second fight in the UFC, and the 23-year-old Makhachev got dropped with a right hook after over-extending on a missed combination. The referee quickly stepped in after Makhachev crumbled to the shot, giving him no time to recover. It was probably the right decision as Martins followed it with a strong hammer fist, which applied more damage to Makhachev, who looked to be out before he quickly came back when the referee pushed Martins off of him.

Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirier cashed as an underdog in his last fight against Benoit St. Denis. Everyone seemed to be writing him off against the up-and-coming “God of War,” but Poirier finished it with a sharp right hook followed by a left straight and followed it up seconds later with another right hook which dropped St. Denis. Poirier, at 35, still has plenty left in the tank but has been around the block quite a few times. He started fighting in 2009 and has accrued a 30-8 (1 NC) record, with some of the most legendary fights in UFC history.

Poirier is 5-2 since his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in the lightweight title fight at UFC 242 in 2019. His other losses came at the hands of Justin Gaethje in 2023 and Charles Oliveira in 2021 at UFC 269 in another title bout. He has another chance to achieve his ultimate goal of owning the undisputed lightweight strap, and his fight IQ needs to be top-notch against Makhachev, who has trained with Khabib his entire life.

Prediction

Makhachev’s only loss, which happened at UFC 192 almost 10 years ago, is the only blemish on Makhachev’s resume. It is likely the same path to victory that Poirier must take to win the belt. The path to victory for Islam Makhachev is probably via his wrestling and grappling, which the oddsmakers agree with. He is -120 to win by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook, which is the most likely outcome of this fight.

I will be backing Poirier, however. He is motivated like never before and has a decent chance in this fight if he can keep it standing. Poirier will be on his back after a Makhachev takedown at some point and must remain smart and defensive. He will undoubtedly have to overcome adversity, but his odds of catching Makhachev with a slick combination increase as the fight progresses. Makhachev showed signs of fatigue in his first fight with Volkanovski, and Poirier can take advantage because Poirier seems to get better, especially striking, in the championship rounds. My official prediction is Poirier by knockout to finally capture the undisputed lightweight belt.