Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State Expert Pick and Prediction – October 16, 2024

WESTERN KENTUCKY VS. SAM HOUSTON STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 16, 2024 — Who’s the most likely to take away Liberty’s crown and make a run at the College Football Playoff? Whoever it is will likely be decided here. Sam Houston State seems to now have FBS football figured out, as the Bearkats are off to a 5-1 start and need just one more win to secure bowl eligibility.

That would be just fine for this program, but there’s still the chance to dream bigger. If the Bearkats can run the table, there’s an outside chance they could be the highest ranked G5 champion (Boise State would need to stumble) and land a first-round game in the playoff. That wouldn’t go well at all, but it is a possibility.

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With two losses on the slate and one being 63-0 to Alabama, Western Kentucky isn’t getting anywhere near the playoff. The Hilltoppers could make a run at the C-USA title, but that’s going to be difficult. Not only do they have to get out of Huntsville with a win, but they also have to go to Lynchburg later in the year. If they can survive both, they will have certainly earned the C-USA title.

But doing so is a very tough ask. Western Kentucky has the passing attack to put up some big numbers, but does it have the ability to slow the Bearkats down? Whether the defense can do its part will go a long way toward deciding this one.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Wednesday, October 16 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, Texas

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 15th, 2024.

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State In-Season Trends

Both teams have been fantastic bets this season. Since getting rocked by Alabama on opening night, WKU has won four of its past five games and covered in all five of them. The Hilltoppers’ only loss was a one-pointer at Boston College, and they were catching 7.5 in that game.

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Sam Houston State has been even better. The Bearkats have won four straight games, and they’ve covered in all of them. The lone failure came in a rout against Central Florida, but they’ve matched their game result to the spread in every game this year. That includes two covers as a double-digit underdog, when they won outright over Rice and Texas State.

Weather

Fall is finally coming to Texas. Temperatures are set to drop into the 50s during this game, with a potential low of 44 degrees before all is said and done.

The Difference-Makers

Kisean Johnson transferred to Western Kentucky for his senior year, and he’s been an ideal fit in this offense. He’s already hauled in 34 passes for 474 yards, and he’s scored four touchdowns in his past four games.

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Hunter Watson does a little of everything for the Bearkats, although he does turn the ball over a little too often. He’s both the leading passer and the leading rusher for Sam Houston State, and the Hilltoppers must know where he is at all times.

The Pick

This seems like a high-scoring game, which seems to favor Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have the ability to score from anywhere, as do the Bearkats. But Sam Houston State is a little careless with the football, and in a game like this where every possession could be critical, you don’t really want to be giving points.

I think the over is the best play on the board, and I’ll ride with the Hilltoppers.