West Virginia vs. Dallas Baptist: Friday, May 31, 2024
WEST VIRGINIA VS. DALLAS BAPTIST: FRIDAY, MAY 31, 2024 — If you’re not up on Division I baseball, you might see this matchup and think the Mountaineers are facing a small directional school that’s happy to be here.
Dallas Baptist is anything but.
The Patriots are in their tenth consecutive regional and have won 40 or more games for the eighth time in nine years. They’re similar to Johns Hopkins in lacrosse or what North Dakota used to be in hockey: Dallas Baptist only competes in Division I in one sport, and the Patriots play it at a very high level. They showed that last year, as they dismissed top seed Oklahoma State in Stillwater, burying the Cowboys in an avalanche of runs.
Related: NCAA Baseball Tournament – Stillwater Regional
And Dallas Baptist will likely bring out the big guns for this showdown with West Virginia: ace pitcher Ryan Johnson. The right-hander struck out 147 batters and excels at getting hitters to chase his slider. Only Arkansas’ Hagen Smith posted a better ERA than Johnson, which puts hits at a premium for the Mountaineers.
West Virginia counters with its own ace in Derek Clark. Clark’s allowed no more than two earned runs in three of his past four starts, and he’ll be looking to prove that he belongs in the same breath as Johnson. All season long, Clark has pitched like he’s got something to prove, which has made him an effective top-line starter. This might be a game where two runs is enough to win.
Players to Watch
JJ Wetherholt didn’t get to show his full potential this season, but there’s a reason MLB scouts can’t wait for him to hit the draft. The West Virginia shortstop won Big 12 player of the year as a sophomore and can hit the ball to all fields. If he’s at full health, he’s also a threat on the base paths.
Related: NCAA Baseball Tournament – Tucson Regional
But if he does go, the Patriots have the ability to neutralize the threat. Grant Jay is a fine defensive catcher who’s even more effective with his bat. The DBU catcher hit 21 homers this season to lead his team, and he threw out 13 would-be base stealers this year. Taking the extra base is a gamble, as any run West Virginia can get will be gold.
The Prediction
Don’t expect many runs here. Clark didn’t pitch in the Big 12 tournament in Arlington, as the Mountaineers had nothing to prove there. With hosting not a possibility, West Virginia held him out to save him for the regional. He should be fully rested and have all of his good stuff intact.
Related: NCAA Baseball Tournament – Norman Regional
Johnson also hasn’t pitched in more than a week. Last time out was his worst showing in five starts, but that’s a relative term. He gave up three earned runs in 4.2 innings, not dominant but a lot better than most pitchers’ bad days. Over his past five starts, he’s given up a total of six earned runs.
A win here would go a long way for the Mountaineers’ chances to survive the regional. But to pull it off, they’ll need to outlast Johnson and get into the bullpen. That means holding back on the slider, which hasn’t been the Mountaineers’ strength. It’s a tough assignment where runs will be at a premium. I think West Virginia comes close, but Dallas Baptist emerges with a narrow win in a low-scoring ballgame.
