Washington vs. Oregon State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 18, 2023

WASHINGTON VS. OREGON STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 18, 2023 — In its final season, the Pac-12 is going out in a blaze of glory. Washington’s one of just a handful of teams who can legitimately think about a spot in the College Football Playoff, as the Huskies sit 10-0 and on top of the conference.

But to get to the promised land, Washington’s got to do what only one team has done in the past three seasons: win at Oregon State.

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The Beavers still have their own hopes of claiming the Pac-12 title, although they’d have to do it the hard way and get some help. To qualify for the final Pac-12 championship game, Oregon State must sweep Washington and Oregon and get Arizona to lose one of its final two games.

This might be the easier part of the equation, as the Beavers continue to dominate their home turf. Only USC last year has managed to escape Reser Stadium with a win since the fans returned. Oregon State’s not going to the playoff and picked the wrong year to make its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1965 (the Rose is a semifinal this year), but the Beavers can still end the year with a New Year’s Six game. That only happens by beating Washington.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 18th at 7:30 p.m. EST

Where: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Ore.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 59% on Oregon State

Public Money: 72% on Oregon State

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of November 16th, 2023.

Washington vs. Oregon State In-Season Trends

For the past three seasons, it’s been the easiest thing to do in college football. You pull up DraftKings, you find Oregon State’s home game listed. You don’t even need to look at the number; all you have to do is take the Beavers to cover the spread. And three hours later, you watch the winnings roll into your account.

That’s what the Oregon State betting experience has been like, as the Beavers have gone 15-1 ATS in Corvallis ever since the fans returned to Reser Stadium. Oregon State still hasn’t really figured out how to win on the road under Jonathan Smith, but the Beavers have made Corvallis a fortress.

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Washington has hit the gas on offense all season, but lower scores have ruled this matchup since Smith took over. In the past four seasons, Oregon State’s win in 2021 was the only time the teams exceeded 50 points, and that was by just one. The lower scores represent how the Beavers have pulled even with the Huskies; this used to be Washington’s week to put up huge numbers. Even with Oregon State’s rise, Washington has still won 10 of the past 11 meetings.

Weather

With a 95% chance of rain coming to Corvallis, the conditions favor the Beavers’ ground game. Temperatures will sit in the low 50s and wind won’t be a factor, but rain could play a big role.

The Difference-Makers

This could be the game where Michael Penix makes his Heisman case one way or the other. Penix and the Huskies’ pass offense have been lights out all season, but they’re facing a tall task in Oregon State. The Beavers have only allowed one team to get above 20 points in Corvallis this year, and UCLA is more of a running squad than a passing one. The Beavers couldn’t slow down the Bruins’ ground game (ranked first in the Pac-12), but they did pick off Dante Moore three times.

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Penix has another problem: will his defense allow him time to do much on the field? Damien Martinez leads the Pac-12 in rushing yards with 1,024, and the Huskies’ run defense has been suspect all season. Oregon’s Bucky Irving gashed Washington for 127 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and it might have been more had Oregon coach Dan Lanning gone for the methodical drive instead of the knockout punch. Oregon State will keep the ball on the ground as long as possible.

The Pick

Something has felt off with Washington for the past month. The Huskies keep finding ways to survive, but Arizona State, Stanford, USC’s horrible defense and Utah’s third-string quarterback do not make for a scary set of opponents.

Washington’s only scraped by against all of them. Oregon State, meanwhile, doesn’t let teams hang around with them in Corvallis. The Beavers punch their guests in the mouth early and never let up.

The polls say this pick is an upset. The numbers and the sportsbook say it won’t be