Washington State vs. Washington Expert Pick and Prediction – December 18, 2024
WASHINGTON STATE VS. WASHINGTON EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 18, 2024 — There’s one good thing about all of this conference realignment nonsense: it gives us some good December games. We’ve got the Apple Cup on the hardwood, and there are genuine questions about whether the home team is tough enough to play in this game.
So far, Washington has not proven itself tough enough to compete with the big names. The Huskies’ best win of the season to this point has been Santa Clara, and the Broncos aren’t exactly knocking down the doors of the selection committee. Washington’s offense has looked really weak in losses to UCLA, USC and Nevada, none of which saw the Huskies break 61 points.
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Washington State has had its struggles against Power 5 opponents, but the Cougars played the same Nevada team that Washington did and shoved them around. While Washington fell by 10 to the Wolf Pack, Washington State handled the same team by 11 on the same floor in Reno.
The Cougars are riding a three-game winning streak, and their loss to SMU now seems to have been more about running out of gas on a back-to-back rather than a warning sign. They look to be the stronger team overall, and they’ve had the better wins. And yet, they come in as the underdog because of the travel across the state.
The Odds
Matchup | Open | Spread | Points | Moneyline |
Washington State(9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) |
O148.5 |
+2.5 |
O148.5 |
+125 |
Washington(7-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
U148.5 |
-150 |
Tipoff
When: Wednesday, December 18 at 11 p.m.
Where: Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle
TV: FS1
Public Bets: Unavailable
Public Money: Unavailable
Washington State vs. Washington In-Season Trends
Home court has not affected Washington State. Not only have the Cougars gone to both Boise State and Nevada and won, but they’re 4-1 SU on their past five trips to Seattle and have won seven of nine against the Huskies overall. Washington State has already played six games away from Pullman, and they’re 4-2 overall in those games. The two losses both came on neutral floors, to Iowa in the Quad Cities (not really a neutral floor) and SMU in the Coachella Valley (very neutral).
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Washington has gone 4-1 ATS in its past five games, but part of that was a product of the schedule. One of those covers was a trip to UCLA, where the Huskies were getting 12 points and lost by 11. Being able to outscore the likes of Eastern Washington isn’t going to impress anyone.
The Difference-Makers
LeJuan Watts and Nate Calmese were both rock-solid on the glass in the Cougars’ win over Nevada. Together, they kept Nick Davidson from turning his rebounds into second-chance points, and that proved key in that victory. The same premise holds when trying to beat Washington, as the Huskies are not good shooters.
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The way you beat Washington is by keeping Great Osobor from beating you on the glass. The Huskies don’t have a good plan B beyond him, and Washington is really weak on defending second chance baskets. If Watts and Calmese win the battle inside, Washington State’s winning the game.
The Pick
The Huskies don’t seem tough enough inside to win this game. They’re kind of a far lesser version of Texas A&M; their strategy depends on getting rebounds inside and drawing fouls. There are two big problems with that strategy: the Huskies are terrible free throw shooters and aren’t really tough enough to win the battles on the boards.
Washington State seems to have the matchup edge where it matters here. The Cougars also have the chip on their shoulder from being the school left behind when the Huskies went to the Big Ten. That served Washington State well in football, and it likely holds here. I’ll take my free bucket, but I don’t think I’ll need it. Washington State should win this outright.
Dan’s Picks |
Washington State +2.5Over 148.5 |