Washington State vs. Arizona Expert Pick and Prediction – February 22, 2024 

WASHINGTON STATE VS. ARIZONA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 22, 2024 — This is the chance Washington State has waited for. While the rest of the country has seen West Coast basketball as limited to Arizona, San Diego State and possibly Saint Mary’s, the Cougars have quietly stacked wins and set themselves up for a possible single-digit seed in March. 

Not only that, but Washington State could move into first place in the Pac-12 if it can upset Arizona, as the Cougars trail the Wildcats by just half a game. At 20-6 overall, and already holding a win over Arizona, this team has to be taken seriously. 

But going into the McKale Center represents an entirely new challenge. The Wildcats haven’t lost in Tucson all season, and they’ve won six straight overall. Arizona leads the nation in scoring because it leads the nation in field goal attempts per game, taking an average of 66.3 shots per contest.  

In the first meeting with Washington State, those shots didn’t drop. If that changes, this won’t go well for the Cougars.

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The Odds 

Tipoff 

When: Thursday, February 22 at 11 p.m. EST 

Where: McKale Center, Tucson, Ariz. 

TV: FS1 

Public Bets: 65% on Arizona 

Public Money: 70% on Arizona 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 21st, 2024 

Washington State vs. Arizona In-Season Trends 

Unlike a lot of teams, Washington State has held its own on the road. Since dropping their first two league games, the Cougars are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in Pac-12 play away from Pullman. The one loss wasn’t great considering it came at California, but it was in overtime. The Cougars have also depended on their defense as of late, holding four straight opponents to 65 points or less. 

Arizona usually sees 65 points around the 10-minute mark of the second half and then zooms right past it. The Wildcats’ 70 against Washington State in the first meeting was their lowest total of the season. Michigan State is the only other team to hold Arizona under 75 points, and UCLA’s the only opponent to come to Tucson and give up less than 80. The Wildcats had their issues with covering the spread in January, but that’s changed: Arizona has covered five of its past six games.  

The Difference-Makers 

Washington State does one thing better than anyone: the Cougars don’t give up interior baskets. Opponents shoot just 48.1 percent in the paint against the Cougar defense, and Washington State tends to prevent a second shot. And that was what killed Arizona the first time; the Wildcats love to get the ball inside. But Keshad Johnson and Oumar Ballo found the going rough against the Washington State defense, leaving Caleb Love to toss up 25 attempts. 

This time around, Arizona must find an answer for Isaac Jones. The senior has been almost automatic for double digits, as he’s scored at least 10 in all but two games this season. He also snagged a season-high 13 rebounds against the Wildcats last time, and if he keeps limiting the Wildcats to one shot, it’s going to be hard for Arizona to get separation.

The Pick 

Washington State is legitimate, and the Cougars will likely find themselves with a solid seed in the NCAA tournament next month. But playing at McKale does things to opponents, especially when the Wildcats are fired up.  

I can’t see Arizona shooting anywhere near as poorly as it did in Pullman. The Wildcats should create some turnovers and hit some shots this time around. If they do those things, Washington State isn’t hanging around.