Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers Pick and Prediction – April 23, 2024

WASHINGTON CAPITALS VS. NEW YORK RANGERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 23, 2024 — You never want to declare a series over after one game, but this one looks pretty bleak from the Capitals’ perspective. Game 1 went exactly as expected, as New York dominated Washington from start to finish.

The Capitals only managed four pucks on net in the first period and six in the third, meaning the Rangers bossed the play for most of the game. About the only thing you can say for Washington was at least the penalty kill didn’t give one up to Adam Fox and the Rangers’ third-ranked power play.

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Washington gave no indication that it’s capable of competing in this series. To win this series, the Capitals will have to win at least once in Madison Square Garden, where the Rangers get the second change. That’s almost certainly not happening. Washington’s defense is badly beaten up, and the Capitals’ six-game skid before they righted themselves at the last second showed they were running on fumes.

New York isn’t about to let Washington get itself into this series. The Rangers have owned this series in the Garden as of late, and they look very capable of making quick work of Washington. Their biggest goal right now is making sure that they win this one and don’t let the Capitals get another chance in the Garden.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Tuesday, April 23, 2024, at 7 PM EST

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 94% on New York

Public Money: 94% on New York

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 23rd, 2024

Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers In-Season Trends

This series has been one-way traffic in the Garden lately. Emphasis on the one is intended; that’s how many goals the Capitals have scored in each of their past three visits to Manhattan. The Rangers have won five of six against Washington on home ice, and the lone defeat was when Darcy Kuemper blanked New York in December 2022.

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Kuemper is now the Washington backup after a terrible season, leaving Charlie Lindgren in the Capitals’ net. That’s been fantastic for under bettors, given that Lindgren is playing well and the Washington offense is not. The under is 7-1-2 in Lindgren’s past 10 starts, and the over hasn’t cashed since April 2 in a 6-2 loss at Buffalo. One of the pushes also came in Buffalo, suggesting the Sabres just might be Lindgren’s bogey team.

Most of these unders have cashed in part because Washington gives Lindgren no support. In Lindgren’s past 11 starts, Washington has scored two or fewer goals 10 times. With Igor Shesterkin locked in for the Blueshirts, that might reach 11 for 12.

Players to Watch

Don’t expect Adam Fox to stay quiet for long. The Rangers’ top defender also serves as their quarterback on the power play, and he’s second on the team in assists. In his past four games following a zero-point showing, he found his way on the stat sheet at least once the next night. He’s also got a history of stepping up in the playoffs, and the penalty kill is not a strength for Washington.

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Washington is gripping its sticks too tight, as almost nobody wants to shoot right now. Alexander Ovechkin tellingly didn’t put one shot on goal against Shesterkin in Game 1. Aliaksei Protas and John Carlson got half of the Capitals’ Game 1 shots, so if you have to take a prop on a Capitals player, that’d be the one. But given that Protas has one goal in 10 games, I’d look elsewhere.

The Pick

New York is healthy and talented. Washington is not healthy and barely scraped into the playoffs. The question here appears not to be whether the Rangers will advance, but whether Washington will make them break a sweat in the process.

It doesn’t look like they will tonight. The Capitals have a decent defense and a good goaltender, but the attack looks pretty toothless. I’d leave out the game total as insurance against a Rangers explosion in this game, as the Capitals team total under looks the safer play. The Blueshirts should easily make this a 2-0 lead.