Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Expert Pick and Prediction – August 31, 2024

VIRGINIA TECH VS. VANDERBILT EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 31, 2024 — This isn’t even supposed to be possible in the age of the transfer portal. Somehow, Virginia Tech has 21 starters back from a season ago, including all 11 starters on offense.

Whether that’s a good thing, of course, remains to be seen. Brent Pry has yet to see much success in Blacksburg, as the once proud program has fallen to mediocrity. Other than 2022, Virginia Tech hasn’t fallen to the scrap heap, but the Hokies have been irrelevant in the ACC. When the Hokies joined the conference in 2005, the hope was that a football-first school like Virginia Tech would raise the league’s profile.

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Instead, much like Florida State and Miami, the Hokies’ football program has sunk into mediocrity. This year should be different, however. The Hokies have a favorable slate (Florida State and SMU aren’t on the schedule and Virginia Tech plays well at Miami) and a lot of pieces back. But the Hokies have to avoid the early season pratfall that has become their trademark as of late. Virginia Tech has lost four of their past five road openers, with the lone exception in the COVID year.

Vanderbilt seems to be in for it yet again. The Commodores continue to just collect a paycheck in the SEC, as they’ve gone 2-34 against Power 4 opponents over the past four seasons. 2022 showed some signs of encouragement when Vanderbilt beat both Kentucky and Florida and gave Missouri a battle, but it was right back to normal in 2023. In nine games against SEC and ACC opponents, Vanderbilt never once came closer than 16 points.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 31 at Noon EST

Where: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 30th, 2024.

Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt In-Season Trends

The home opener is supposed to be a time for celebration if you’re a Power 4 school. If you’re Vanderbilt, not so much. The Commodores have the same outcome almost every year: they stagger to the finish line, having either been pushed by a school that’s not supposed to beat an SEC opponent or blasted by a stronger Power 4 school. 

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Over the past three seasons, Vandy has scheduled lighter at home, but it hasn’t helped the Commodores cover. Vandy is 0-4 ATS in its past four non-conference games, and the Commodores have failed to cover in any of their past six non-SEC home games. Last year’s home opener saw the Commodores give 17.5 to Hawai’i, yet the margin of victory was seven.

Weather

The quicker this game gets over with, the better. There’s a large thunderstorm heading for Nashville in the afternoon, but with an 11 a.m. kick local time, the teams should avoid it. They won’t avoid the summer heat; temperatures will sit in the low 90s.

The Difference-Makers

Is Diego Pavia good enough for the SEC? Last season, Pavia led New Mexico State into the Conference USA title game, and he has beaten Auburn. He has an experienced line in front of him, and his experience gives Vanderbilt much more stability at the position than it’s had in a while.

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Kyron Drones was brilliant at avoiding mistakes last season, tossing just three interceptions against 17 touchdowns. He makes plays with his legs as well as his arm, and he’s got a reliable running back in Bhayshul Tuten to take pressure off of him. The offense should not be a problem for the Hokies.

The Pick

Vanderbilt has improved from past seasons. The Commodores should be a little better than cannon fodder this year. But they’re still a ways behind the rest of the Power 4. The reality is that until Vanderbilt gets a few solid classes on campus, most teams will see their trip to Nashville as a road win and an excuse for their fan base to party.

Virginia Tech’s been through enough early-season heartache to come into this game focused. Vanderbilt is the only non-conference opponent the Hokies haven’t seen in the past two seasons, and they’ve managed to lose to all three of the others. This should be the first step toward Pry getting things fixed.