Villanova vs. Connecticut Expert Pick and Prediction – February 18, 2025

VILLANOVA VS. CONNECTICUT EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 18, 2025 — Does Villanova have enough time to play its way onto the bubble? Yes, but only if it runs the table and makes a run in New York. The Wildcats gave themselves a chance by picking off St. John’s in Philadelphia, but they then turned around and lost at Providence three days later.

That stopped a three-game surge for Kyle Neptune’s side, and it likely put Neptune himself on the bubble of whether or not he’ll be Villanova’s coach in October. The Wildcats did themselves no favors in non-conference play by taking what proved to be horrible losses to Virginia and Columbia (the latter an especially garish home Quad 4 loss), and they’ve done nothing to offset it away from eastern Pennsylvania.

The thing that really eats away at Neptune and Nova Nation is how close this profile is to being NCAA-worthy. The Wildcats have lost to Maryland by 1, Xavier by 6, Creighton by 7 away and 2 at home and Georgetown by a point at home. Flip three of those games, and Villanova is 18-8 and likely safely in the field. Instead, the Wildcats have five games left before New York to try to fix the damage.

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Connecticut is in for now, but Dan Hurley’s group is far from a national champion contender. The Huskies lapped the field last season, but they’ve clearly taken a step back this year. Other than a loss to Dayton in the seventh-place game in Maui, Connecticut hasn’t played poorly in any game this season. It just hasn’t played all that well, and when it has, it hasn’t shown any consistency.

Case in point: if you had told Hurley the Huskies would go 1-1 last week, he’d have taken it and assumed that Connecticut would rout Seton Hall and fall just short at Creighton. Instead, the Huskies got their first win in Omaha, then found a way to lose in overtime to what was then last-place Seton Hall. The consistency just isn’t there, which is why Connecticut is likely on the 8-9 line this year.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, February 18 at 6:30 p.m.

Where: XL Center Hartford, Conn.

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Villanova vs. Connecticut In-Season Trends

Neptune has a long way to go to get to where Jay Wright built Villanova, and finally beating Hurley head-to-head was a good step in the right direction. Connecticut returned to the Big East just as the Villanova dynasty was ending, and the Huskies have won five of seven from the Wildcats. However, Villanova has been the team to put your money on, as the Huskies are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine against the Wildcats.

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The other place to put your money in this matchup has been the under. Ironically, the way Wright got Villanova rolling was to slam on the brakes, and Neptune has kept up that slow pace. Hurley has done the same thing in Storrs ever since the Huskies returned to the Big East. Both teams are among the 25 slowest-paced teams in college basketball, and the under is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

The Difference-Makers

There’s no other way to say it: Connecticut wasn’t aggressive enough the last time it played Villanova. When you only take four foul shots the whole game — and Villanova is not exactly a team that keeps opponents off the line — you did not attack well enough. Getting Liam McNeeley back in the lineup should help. McNeeley did not play in the first meeting, but he came back on Feb. 7 against St. John’s. He is far too inconsistent with his shot, but hits pretty well from 15 feet. He needs to be aggressive here.

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At 23.2 points per game, Eric Dixon is leading the nation in scoring. That does not mean he was effective against Connecticut last time. He shot just 6-for-20, but made up for it by going 9-for-9 at the line. The Huskies will have to chase him off the arc this time; Dixon is at his best when he can shoot the deep shot.

The Pick

Villanova has done a fair amount of good lately, but all of that work has come on its home floor. When you look at what the Wildcats have done away from home, there’s a win at Butler, a win at DePaul…and that’s it. Over the course of the rest of the season, Villanova has played six other true road games and lost all of them. Only one, Xavier, was by less than seven points.

Of course, the line has moved one point past that, but I don’t think it will matter. Connecticut is likely to come out strong in this game after getting embarrassed by Seton Hall. The Huskies are in the field as long as they don’t lose anywhere other than Madison Square Garden before Selection Sunday (one of their final two road games before the Big East tournament is at MSG against St. John’s, a completely forgivable loss). They should come out with a strong effort here.