Villanova vs. Butler Expert Pick and Prediction – January 1, 2025

VILLANOVA VS. BUTLER EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 1, 2025 — Is Butler going to do anything in the Big East this season? If the Bulldogs hope to do anything this year, a win here is mandatory. Butler comes in on a five-game losing streak, which has been filled with one of the widest range of outcomes in the nation.

Losing last time to Connecticut was excusable. Losing to North Dakota State was far less excusable, as Butler played poorly for the first half and ended up falling just short of the Bison. And now they’re in position to get knocked out of the Big East race well before it starts if they can’t get a win against Villanova.

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Villanova has been inconsistent as well, as the Wildcats took what has become their annual head-scratcher in the non-conference. They managed to lose by double digits to Columbia, and they just took a defeat against Creighton on the road.

That loss was the end of the Wildcats’ five-game win streak, and it showed that Villanova is a step behind the league powers. But Butler is a fair drop-off from the likes of Creighton, making this an opportunity for the Wildcats to get back on track.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, January 1 at 6 p.m.

Where: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Villanova vs. Butler In-Season Trends

The best move in this situation is usually to bet on the home team. The host has won in nine of the past 10 matchups between these teams, including the past four. The lone exception was Villanova’s win in March 2022, a 78-59 rout of Butler.

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As part of that, the total has gone along with the team that’s more likely to win the game. When the game is played in Philadelphia, the under tends to cash, in line with Villanova’s slow pace. In Indianapolis, the over has tended to cash, even though Butler is far from the fastest team on the planet.

The Difference-Makers

Eric Dixon comes off a 27-point showing last time against Creighton, which saw him shoot 57% from behind the arc. Both of these teams excel at shooting the 3-pointer, and Dixon is the best shooter the Wildcats have.

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If he’s off, Andre Screen could take over the game for Butler. Screen, a graduate transfer, has made himself a presence in the low post and kept Butler in the game against Connecticut. Villanova has to keep him out of the paint at all costs.

The Pick

Villanova is weak with its 3-point defense. Butler is weak with its defense overall. The Bulldogs allow far too many shots from the floor, and that doesn’t work against a team that shoots as well as the Wildcats.

It seems counterintuitive here, given that the over tends to favor the Bulldogs. But Butler’s defense hasn’t been good enough this year, and Villanova’s shooters are coming off a strong game. The Wildcats should turn the tables here..