Venezuela vs. Canada Expert Pick and Prediction – July 5, 2024

VENEZUELA VS. CANADA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 5, 2024 — If you’d been able to place a bet on either Venezuela or Canada to be one of the last four in the Copa America, you could have retired for life. Bolivia might be the worst side in South America, but at least La Verde has some soccer history. As poor as Bolivia is now, it does have a Copa America title to its name, and it made a World Cup appearance in 1994.

Not so for Venezuela, which is far and away the South American side with the least amount of history. La Vinotinto is the only South American nation that’s never made it to the World Cup. It’s also never made the final of the Copa America and has only reached one semifinal in its history.

But slowly, things are improving in Venezuela. This marked the fourth time in six tries that it’s gotten out of the group stage, and it won all three group matches in Group B. There’s no indication of Venezuela joining its neighbors Guyana and Suriname in CONCACAF, but it might not be a bad idea: Venezuela really appears comfortable in the United States. La Vinotinto has 10 Copa America wins in its history, and five of them have come on American soil.

Related: Uruguay vs. United States Pick and Prediction

While Venezuela looks for respect, Canada carries the banner for CONCACAF. Nobody expected a CONCACAF side to win South America’s tournament, but the United States and Mexico were at least supposed to qualify for the knockouts. That didn’t happen, despite both of the North American giants only having to deal with two South American sides. Instead, Canada, cursed with a group of three South American teams, managed to progress.

Whether they can extend this run depends on whether the defense can hold up. Canada has performed admirably at the back line, holding Argentina to two goals and blanking Peru and Chile. But Venezuela is a more aggressive side that feels it has nothing to lose. This isn’t likely to be another scoreless draw; Canada will have to press forward to move forward.

Kickoff

Teams: Venezuela vs. Canada

When: Friday, July 5 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

TV: FS1

Spread: Venezuela 0/Canada 0

Moneyline: Venezuela +180/Canada +175/Draw +205

To Advance: Venezuela -110/Canada -115

Totals: Over 2.5 (+130)/Under 2.5 (-165)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 5th, 2024 

Scouting Venezuela

If you’re looking for offense out of this Venezuelan side, do yourself a favor: Set an alarm for around 9:50 p.m. EDT and make your bet then. If all goes according to form, you’ll get even better odds on La Vinotinto, because this side hardly ever scores before the halftime whistle. Over its past 12 matches, Venezuela has scored 14 goals, and not one came before the 43rd minute. Only two happened before the first-half whistle, which says that either coach Fernando Batista is the world’s best halftime speaker or the Venezuelans just don’t show up in the first 45 minutes.

In Copa America, that trend has been on full display. Ecuador breached Venezuela’s defense in the 40th minute in its first group match, but that’s the only goal Venezuela has conceded. All six Venezuelan goals came in the second half of their three matches, and they proved they could overcome a deficit against Ecuador. Eduard Bello and Salamon Rondon have proven themselves in Liga MX, and both have two goals in the tournament.

Scouting Canada

This needs to be Jonathan David’s moment. Canada made it out of the group for two reasons: Argentina’s dominance and the fact that Chile and Peru never scored. David got Canada’s only goal in the group stage, and Les Rouges will have to score if they’re going to progress.

Related: Why the United States Should Fire Gregg Berhalter

Coach Jesse Marsch has instilled tough defensive principles, but at some point, the Canadians have to hit the mesh. Right now, Canada’s shown little ability to do that. This cannot be just Maxine Crepeau and sit back; that’s a recipe for coming up short.

Best Bets

Scoreless First Half (+135): All six matches in Group A finished 0-0 at halftime. In Group B, four out of six matches had that same scoreline after 45 minutes. With Venezuela a second-half team and Canada likely to wait for its moment, the goal shouldn’t come until the second half.

Venezuela ML (+180): Venezuela has looked the stronger side of the two to this point. They played in a weaker group than Canada, but they also dominated that group and showed a flair for the attack. They should have the edge here.

Venezuela 1-0 (+550): Canada’s offense just isn’t getting the job done. Venezuela might lack the history, but Canada also has little history to its name. La Vinotinto has looked stronger and should make its second semifinal in Copa America history.