Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars Pick and Prediction – May 1, 2024

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS. DALLAS STARS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 1, 2024 — Is anyone going to win on home ice in this series? Dallas showed that it’s far from done in this series by taking both games in Nevada, sending things back to Texas even at 2.

This series has been the most even by far in Round 1, and it’s been dominated by good stretches of play on both sides. The biggest question now is whether Dallas’ recent showings in Las Vegas have allowed the Stars to regain control of the series.

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The case for is that the Stars have stopped taking penalties over the past three games. Dallas has gone to the box just four times in the past three games, and the Golden Knights didn’t connect on any of them. Vegas is not a team that counts on its power play, however; that’s just a bonus for their scorers. But that stat does underscore just how disciplined the Stars have been lately.

The case against is that Dallas still has yet to beat Vegas on home ice this season. The Stars came up big twice, but the Golden Knights aren’t out of this by a longshot. The Stanley Cup champions know what it takes to succeed at this level, and they’ve mostly played like it. Dallas stepped up nicely when it needed it, but can the Stars keep this going back in front of their fans?

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Wednesday, May 1 at 10 p.m. EST

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 83% on Dallas

Public Money: 72% on Dallas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 30th, 2024

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars In-Season Trends

Neither side has really enjoyed being the favorite this season. Both teams are under .500 against the spread, and both teams have shown their problems with being the favorite in losing both games at home. Dallas actually has a lesser home record than on the road, taking 56 points out of a possible 86 in Texas this season.

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However, the Stars did come into this series having won three of their past four on home ice. They also won with defense; not one of those four games saw more than five goals scored. In fact, five of the past six games played in Dallas have seen both teams fail to score more than three goals for the game. The lone exception was Game 1, which Vegas won by a 4-3 count.

Players to Watch

This stat is remarkable: not one player on either team scored more than a point in Game 4. Both teams know what the other brings to the table and have the depth to find a plan C, D, E and beyond, so it’s really difficult to bet on anyone to stand out.

The best bet is to ride a star and hope it’s their night to shine. Jack Eichel has been that star for Vegas, having scored six points in the series. Three have come via goal, including a shorthanded marker. He and Jonathan Marchessault are the only Golden Knights with more than 10 shots on goal, making them the best choices for a goal prop.

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For Dallas, Wyatt Johnston seems to have figured out that the Stars need him to be aggressive. In Game 1 and Game 2 in Dallas, Johnston put just four shots on goal total. He took 14 shots in two games in Vegas, and he was rewarded with three of them finding the net. Backing him to go over his shots on goal total might be a sneaky way to get plus money..

The Pick

This has been an even series and thus a hard one to handicap. The Stars have played very well each time out, but so have the Golden Knights. Neither team is giving an inch, and this game could go a long way toward deciding the series.

With Vegas having dominated at the American Airlines Center as of late, the value sits with the Golden Knights. It wouldn’t shock me if the Stars won, but this game feels like a coin flip. When it’s a coin flip, always take plus money.