Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers Pick and Prediction – May 18, 2024

VANCOUVER CANUCKS VS. EDMONTON OILERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 18, 2024 — The Canucks are now one win away from making the majority of NHL analysts look really foolish. Conventional wisdom said that Vancouver’s dominance of Edmonton in the regular season didn’t mean anything, because the Oilers had played the first three before firing their coach and the last one without Connor McDavid.

As a result, they priced Vancouver to win the series at +220 before Game 1, making the Canucks the largest underdog in the second round. But the Canucks have proven their dominance of Edmonton was no fluke, and they now sit one win from the Western finals.

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And that has the Oilers’ fanbase just about to panic. Edmonton was supposed to take its next step this year and finally cash in on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s pairing. Instead, the Oilers are running into some of the same problems they always have. They lack the depth to play with the Canucks 5-on-5, and Vancouver hasn’t been shy of pressing its edge.

More worrying for the Oilers have been the blue line, the goaltending and the power play. The blue line isn’t strong enough to stop Vancouver, and the goaltending has been poor at best. But Edmonton could have survived those things as long as the power play was producing. Right now it isn’t, as the Oil have converted just one chance in their past seven. If Edmonton isn’t scoring with the man advantage, this series is over.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Saturday, May 18 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 74% on Edmonton

Public Money: 59% on Edmonton

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 18th, 2024

Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers In-Season Trends

Every game in this series has been decided by a single goal, and yet the oddsmakers refuse to make Vancouver favorites even once. The Canucks have been the underdogs in all nine meetings, and they’re 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU against Edmonton this season. It hasn’t mattered what Edmonton has tried; Vancouver has consistently had an answer.

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Recently, the under has started to cash as the Oilers’ power play has gone cold. If Edmonton continues to struggle 5-on-4, it’s hard to see the Oilers changing the way this series has gone.

Players to Watch

The Oilers are changing goaltenders for Game 6, going back to Stuart Skinner. Calvin Pickard couldn’t do the job in Game 5, and Skinner hasn’t done the job in two out of his three starts. Vancouver has scored on 14.5% of its shots, an unsustainably high number. With Edmonton’s blue line struggling to slow down the Canucks, either Oiler goaltender is seeing a high number of high-quality shots.

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On the other side, Artuts Silovs continues to stand up to the Oilers despite a barrage of shots. Edmonton has looked similar to Carolina against the Rangers, peppering Silovs with shot after shot. Despite the fact that Silovs is Vancouver’s No. 3 goaltender, he’s managed to keep the Oilers at bay.

The Pick

The one area where Edmonton has had an edge is the power play. But Vancouver has been better than Edmonton in every other aspect of the series, and the Canucks have shown no fear whatsoever. McDavid didn’t get a point in Game 5, and Draisaitl scored just one point in the contest.

Either McDavid and Draisaitl step up the attack and find a new way to navigate the Vancouver blue line, or this series is going to end here. It feels like the latter is more likely.