Utah vs. Arizona State Expert Pick and Prediction – October 11, 2024

UTAH VS. ARIZONA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 11, 2024 — The question is always the same when it comes to Utah: is Cam Rising going to play? The oft-injured Utah quarterback has some suggestions that he’ll take the field, but there’s no guarantee.

And that makes this a tough play against a resurgent Arizona State. The Sun Devils were a mess when Kenny Dillingham took over from Herm Edwards, but the former Oregon assistant has turned things around. Arizona State is 4-1, with the lone loss coming to Big 12 leader Texas Tech. With struggling Oklahoma State and winnable matchups with Cincinnati and UCF still to come, Arizona State has several paths to get to six wins and make it to a bowl game.

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That’s nowhere near good enough for Utah. The expectations are drastically different in Salt Lake City because of what Kyle Whittingham has built. Utah believed it should be in the mix for the Pac-12 title every year when that league existed, and for the most part, the Utes were right. The schedule really turns nasty in November for the Utes, as they’ll host BYU and Iowa State along with the always-tricky trip over the Rockies to face Colorado.

If Utah hopes to stay in the race when ski slope season gets underway, it cannot afford to slip up anywhere before November. Whether or not Rising plays, the pressure is on for the Utes.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, October 11 at 10:30 EST

Where: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Ariz.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 11th, 2024.

Utah vs. Arizona State In-Season Trends

Taking the backdoor cover is often a bad idea in this matchup. When these teams get together, the team that wins is the team that covers. In the past eight meetings, the winning team is 8-0 ATS. The last time the losing team covered the game was a 19-16 Arizona State win in 2014, which was so long ago the Sun Devils were giving a touchdown.

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Coaches don’t pay attention to spreads, but Dillingham has done a great job making ASU a perfect cover bet. In the Sun Devils’ past 11 games, their spread result has matched their game result every time.

Weather

Television is reason 1 why this game’s kicking off at 10:30 p.m. Eastern. Reason 2 is the fact that it’s going to be 104 degrees in the middle of the afternoon in Tempe. It’ll be a little better at kickoff, but still not great: 95 degrees.

The Difference-Makers

Stopping the Sun Devils starts with stopping running back Cam Skattebo. Texas Tech did it, holding him to 60 yards, and the Sun Devils spent the game playing catch-up and lost by eight. Kansas couldn’t do it, allowing 182 and a score from Skattebo, and Arizona State emerged victorious. Utah’s run defense is good, but it must be at its best here.

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If Rising plays, he’s the X-factor. If not, Isaac Wilson (Zach Wilson’s younger brother) will take the reins. Bad decisions with the football are apparently genetic, as Wilson has seven interceptions against six touchdowns.

The Pick

I would not touch the spread on this game until the teams come out for warm-ups. If Rising is on the field, Utah is likely the better bet. If it’s Wilson, ASU might win this one outright. The Sun Devils have a good defense that will make life very difficult on Wilson from start to finish, and he hasn’t shown he can handle it.

The best bet to me is the under. Utah plays defense well, and ASU has done the same under Dillingham. Dillingham was a defense-first guy in Eugene, and the same holds in Tempe. With or without Rising, Utah’s got a tough assignment to move the ball on ASU. Throw in the ground-first approach from the Sun Devils, and the clock should move.