Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat Expert Pick – March 2, 2024

UTAH JAZZ VS. MIAMI HEAT EXPERT PICK – MARCH 1, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games from tonight’s slate features the Utah Jazz (27-33 SU, 32-25 ATS) taking on the Miami Heat (33-26 SU, 30-28-1 ATS).

In a battle of two teams going in opposite directions, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Saturday, March 2, 2024

Time: 5:00 PM ET

Where: Kaseya Center

Location: Miami, FL

TV: NBA TV, BSSUN and KJZZ

Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Jazz Snap Their Five-Game Road Losing Streak?

 Utah Jazz Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.5 PPG – 10^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.3 points per 100 possessions – 15^TH
• Scoring Defense: 120.4 PPG – 25^TH                  
• Defensive Efficiency: 119.2 points per 100 possessions – 25^TH

Life has not been easy for the Utah Jazz as of late. They hold down the No. 11 spot out west, and they trail the Los Angeles Lakers by six games for the last play-in tournament slot.

Additionally, Utah has dropped seven of its last 10 contests and the team enters this matchup amid a two-game losing streak. This includes a 115-107 loss to the Orland Magic on Thursday night.

Three players scored 19 points for the Jazz in that matchup. John Collins finished with 19 points and 10 rebounds. Both Collin Sexton and Keonte George added 19 points each, with both players shooting an identical 5-for-12 from the field.

Despite losing seven of its last eight games, Utah kept the game close through the first three quarters and took a two-point lead into the final frame. Unfortunately, the Magic pulled away in the final period, outscoring the Jazz by a 35-25 margin.

“We put ourselves in a position to win the game. That’s where we want to be with two minutes left — one-point down,” Jazz coach Will Hardy said after the game. “I felt like down the stretch, there were a couple of plays that just didn’t go our way. … Jalen Suggs made some 3s late. That can happen in an NBA game.”

In their last seven defeats, the Jazz have allowed 127.1 per contest. Perhaps Utah can turn this trend around against an opponent that has the fourth-worst scoring average in the association.

Can The Heat Bounce From Loss To Defending Champs?

 Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 110.4 PPG – 27^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.8 points per 100 possessions – 22^ND    
• Scoring Defense: 109.7 PPG – 3^RD
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.1 points per 100 possessions – 8^TH

Meanwhile, while the Heat are tied with the Indiana Pacers for the No. 7 spot in the conference playoff race, the team’s stock is trending upward. They have won seven of their last 10 decisions and recently completed a six-game road trip with a 5-1 record.

The Heat’s lone setback was a 103-97 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night. Four of Miami’s starting five scored in double figures, headlined by Bam Adebayo’s 22 points and eight rebounds.

Jimmy Butler added 21 points and seven rebounds, while Terry Rozier contributed 19 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Although the Heat shot just 42.2 percent from the field and 26.9 percent from beyond the arc, they nearly overcame a 16-point deficit.

“Having that type of adversity is good for us, especially in these types of environments,” Adebayo said via CBS Sports. “A lot of shots (that) usually go in, they didn’t tonight. We’re all human. Some days we’re all going to shoot 60 (percent) or higher, some days we’re not.”

It was the first time that the Heat failed to score 100 points since early February. With that in mind, they will be looking to get back on track against the struggling Jazz.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Heat opened as a consensus 8.5-point favorite. That line has moved to 7.5 points for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Jazz are 1-7 in their last eight contests.
• Utah is 2-4 ATS in its last six games against Miami.
• The Jazz have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five road outings.
• In its last seven matchups against Eastern Conference teams, Utah is just 1-6 against the spread.
• The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last nine games.
• Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In their last six Sunday games, the Heat are 0-6 against the spread.

Despite the fact the Heat have not covered the spread in their last six Saturday games, going with the home team looks like the smart play here.

Prediction: Miami Heat (-7.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 226.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 223.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Jazz’s last five games.
• The UNDER total is 5-1 in Utah’s last six matchups against Southeast Division opponents.
• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Heat’s last eight contests.
• The UNDER total has prevailed five times in Miami’s last six home games.
• In the Heat’s last six games they have played in March, the UNDER total prevailed four times.

Prediction: UNDER 223.5 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch in this matchup is Jimmy Butler. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 21.5 points.

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Butler is averaging 21.5 points per outing.
• In 20 home contests, he is averaging 23.1 PPG.
• Butler has played against Western Conference teams 13 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 20.1 points per outing.
• In 10 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Butler is averaging 26 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Butler has averaged 23.6 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup seven times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jimmy Butler OVER 21.5 points