Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers Prediction. Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images.
Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers Expert Pick
UTAH JAZZ AT PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS EXPERT PICK Â - The Utah Jazz (25-25) travel to Portland to face the Trail Blazers (22-25) on Wednesday night, January 25th.
While Utah boasts the better record, the Trail Blazers are favored by 3.5 points, because of the Jazz's streaky play since their hot start to the beginning of the season.Â
Utah is 3-2 in their last five games, including an impressive 23-point victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. They're coming off a win against the Charlotte Hornets, where Lauri Markanen put up 25 points in an impressive effort.
The Trail Blazers broke a 3-game losing streak on Monday night, defeating the San Antonio Spurs, 147-127. Damien Lillard had a monster game against San Antonio with 37 points. The Blazers'' superstar shot 63% from the field, 64% from 3-point range, and 6/6 from the charity stripe.
Let's take a look at the odds.
The Odds
Matchup
Open
Spread
Points
Moneyline
Jazz
(25-25)
+4
+3.5
o237.5
+140
Trail Blazers
(22-25)
u237.5
-3.5
u237.5
-165
Tipoff
When: Wednesday, January 25th at 10:00 pm EST
Where: Moda Center, Portland, OR
TV: ROOT Sports NW+
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of January 25th, 2023
Utah Jazz Season Trends
The Jazz have fallen back to earth after their meteoric start that sent them to the top of the standings in the Wester Conference. Utah is 6-4 in their last ten games and 9-16 on the road this season.
The team's hot start also means that their trends against the spread (ATS) are a little misleading. They 20-7 ATS as an underdog this season and 12-6 ATS as an underdog on the road. Utah is also 21-11 ATS in the Western Conference and 16-13 ATS with 1 day off. These are incredible trends ATS, but Utah has been undervalued and they've been over performing all year, so it's hard to trust these numbers too much.
For a team with a dearth of star power, the Jazz are very efficient on offense. They rank 4th in offensive efficiency. They have an offensive rating of 116.4 and rank in the top ten in offensive rebounds (30.8%). The Jazz also play fairly fast, ranking 12th in pace of play (101.5).
The Jazz are led by Markkanen, who averages 24.8 points per game and 8.8 rebounds per game. Jordan Clarkson has also been contributing on offense, averaging 21.1 points per game and 4.1 assists per game.
Where the Jazz excel on offense, they lack in defense. Utah ranks 25th in defensive efficiency. They struggle to come down with defensive boards and give up way too many points to mediocre clubs. If the Jazz are to win, they must rely on their defense.
Portland Trail Blazers Season Trends
Portland has struggled lately to put together a string of quality wins. They are 3-7 in their last ten games, including the 3 game losing streak that they snapped with a win on Monday.
The Trail Blazers are 13-9 ATS at home this season and 9-6 ATS as a home favorite. They're 12-9 ATS after a win, which is encouraging, but they haven't been good after 1 day off, going 13-17 ATS. This doesn't bode well for a matchup with the Jazz, who are very strong ATS after 1 day of rest.
Portland has been relatively efficient this year on offense. They rank 8th in offensive efficiency, 14th in net rating, and 15th in assist ratio. They play much slower than the Jazz, ranking 23rd in pace (98.49). Save for Jusuf Nurkic, Portland doesn't rebound particularly well either and has to rely on their guard play for much of their production.
Lillard has been unstoppable this season. He's averaging 29.3 points per game, shooting 45% from the field and 36% from three. His player efficiency rating is (PER) is 24.7. Â The Trail Blazers may have trouble putting together wins, but, when Lillard is on the floor, he gives them a chance to beat any team in the NBA.
Portland doesn't impress much on defense, as they rank 18th in efficiency. Both the Jazz and the Trail Blazers prefer to outscore their opponent in order to win.
The Pick
While the Jazz boast some impressive trends ATS, they don't have the momentum or the fire power to keep up with the Trail Blazers on the road. Portland should be able to ride Lillard's 37-point performance against the Spurs on Monday night to another win against a paltry Jazz defense.
Consider the OVER at 237.5 as well. Neither of these teams defend very well or dominate the defensive glass. The Jazz's preference to speed up the pace of play should lead to a high scoring game.
I'm confident in taking both the Trail Blazers -3.5 and the OVER at 237.5.
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Jack Fredericks is the editor of Godzilla Wins. He has a M.A. Literature and the Environment and a M.A. in Teaching. He covers the NFL, college football, and the NBA. He combines his unique perspective with advanced metrics to provide robust analysis for your enjoyment. Twitter: @JohnMattFred
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