USC vs. LSU Expert Pick and Prediction – September 1, 2024

The only game played on Sunday this week is the Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic between the Trojans and the Tigers. Both teams are attempting to form a new identity after losing their quarterbacks to the NFL last season. The game will be played in Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium, with LSU listed as the home team. Allegiant Stadium is a dome, but it will still be 105 degrees at game time of 7:30 pm. EST on Sunday. Check out the Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks page.

Related: Colorado State vs. Texas: Pick and Prediction 

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 1 at 7:30 p.m. EST

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

TV: ABC

Public Bets: 57%, LSU

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 31st, 2024.

USC vs. LSU Head-To-Head

USC is moving on from Caleb Williams and will do so in a new conference. Miller Moss will lead this team into the Big Ten with head coach Lincoln Riley. Moss has big shoes to fill, replacing the 2022 Heisman winner. He started in USC’s bowl game last season and threw for 372 yards and six touchdowns against Louisville. The offensive line is a strength of this team and should allow Moss time to throw against this porous Tigers’ defense. Jonah Monheim will anchor this unit at center after transitioning from left tackle. He is on several watch lists and should be a force inside.

The Trojans have not lost a season opener since 2016, when they lost 52-6 to Alabama. Lincoln Riley would love to have a victory over the thirteenth-ranked team in the country to start the season after a tough 8-5 season with Caleb Williams. It would also be a big win in a non-conference game against a team they do not play often. It is only the third matchup between these schools, with the first two coming in 1979 and 1984.

LSU replaces the reigning Heisman winner, Jayden Daniels, with Garrett Nussmeier. He threw for 395 yards and three touchdowns in the Tigers’ bowl game against Wisconsin last season. Brian Kelly has lost the season opener in his first two seasons at LSU, both to Florida State. Both teams finished with 10 wins, with four losses in 2022 and three losses in 2023.

These teams are similar because they are not great on defense and have strong offensive lines. AP preseason All-American offensive tackle Will Campbell is the unit’s strength and will be blocking for a slew of running backs. Senior Josh Williams looks to be the starter, with Kaleb Jackson sure to get touches. He played in all 13 games last season. John Emery and true freshman Caden Durham are the other backs who could see action.

The Pick

Both defenses were putrid last season, and there is not much to look forward to this season. LSU gave up 29.5 points per game, and USC allowed 34.4 points per game last season. Defending the pass was the weakness of LSU last season when they allowed 264.2 passing yards per game. USC was slightly better than LSU at defending the pass, but not by much. They allowed 246.4 passing yards per game last season.

I will give out two picks for this prime-time stand-alone game on Sunday. Both defenses are awful, so the over 64.5 is a solid play. Even though these offenses are implementing new quarterbacks, they showed in their bowl games that they can deliver points for their teams. The other play is USC +4.5. The LSU defense was objectively worse, and Miller Moss is probably the better of the two quarterbacks. He should be able to keep them in this game and could potentially win it outright.