Uruguay vs. United States Expert Pick and Prediction – July 1, 2024

URUGUAY VS. UNITED STATES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 1, 2024 — It’s rare that you get a one-match situation to save a coach’s job, but that’s exactly what we’ve got here with the United States. A loss to Panama means the unthinkable has happened for the Americans, as they face the prospect of not qualifying for the knockout stages of Copa America.

Given the group, this would be a calamity that coach Gregg Berhalter can’t recover from. The U.S. has a golden opportunity to build soccer in the country with the 2026 World Cup, and that can’t happen without a deep run. But Berhalter and his players haven’t shown they can beat the world’s middling sides, let alone the top ones.

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This represents their final opportunity, and it’s against an in-form Uruguay. La Celeste’s soccer culture runs deep, as it’s one of just four nations that owns at least four world championships. This has also long been Uruguay’s tournament, as it’s won a record 15 Copa America titles. Despite having fewer people than Utah, Uruguay consistently punches above its weight, even in the modern game.

Above all, Uruguay are talented and disciplined, the latter of which the Americans have sorely lacked. With Tim Weah suspended and Matt Turner banged up, this is going to take the Americans’ best match to keep their tournament going.

Kickoff

Teams: Uruguay vs. United States

When: Sunday, July 1 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

TV: FS1

Spread: Uruguay 0/United States 0

Moneyline: Uruguay +195/United States +145/Draw +230

Totals: Over 2.5 (+115)/Under 2.5 (-145)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 30th, 2024 

Scouting Uruguay

The quick, early strike has been a staple of Uruguay’s attack. In their past three matches, Uruguay has gone ahead within 15 minutes on its way to a dominating performance. Darwin Nunez in particular has dominated for La Celeste, scoring five times in his past three matches.

Surviving the first 15 minutes is no guarantee of success, as Uruguay also possesses a closing kick. In two group matches, Uruguay has scored five goals in the final 15 minutes to turn a pair of close scorelines into blowouts. This side never stops coming, and it’s full of depth that plays around the world. Uruguay also possesses another key advantage: it doesn’t have to win. A draw ensures Uruguay tops Group C, so it doesn’t have to press the issue unless the match develops that way.

Scouting United States

With Tim Weah suspended, who steps up in his place? Folarin Balogun has had a fine tournament on the attack, and he and Christian Pulisic are the most likely to find the mesh here. But the midfield has been average, and the back line isn’t as steady as it should be outside of Jedi Robinson.

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A big question exists at the back line because of Matt Turner’s health. Having him at keeper lets the U.S. get away with some mistakes. But Ethan Horvath isn’t as experienced and might have a tough time against Uruguay’s pressure. If Turner can’t go, the back four have to be at their best.

Best Bets

Uruguay win (+195): There’s just not enough from the United States to think they win this match. The lack of discipline has been striking in this tournament and beyond, while Uruguay has looked very sharp. If the Celeste didn’t need to get anything, it might be different, but the U.S. have a tough ask here.

Over 2.5 Goals (+110): Uruguay’s not likely to stop attacking. Its past three matches have all seen at least four in the net, and the U.S. has every reason to keep the pressure on. The Americans have to press because they have to beat Panama’s goal differential or beat Uruguay by four goals to qualify. So the over makes the most sense.

Uruguay 2-1 (+750): Balogun and Pulisic give the U.S. reasonable hopes to find a goal, but the Americans have looked too disjointed to reasonably expect a win. Unless there’s a Panamanian calamity against Bolivia, the tournament likely ends here for the U.S.