UNLV vs. Boise State Expert Pick and Prediction – December 6, 2024

UNLV VS. BOISE STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 6, 2024 — Can the Broncos finish off their run toward the College Football Playoff? Or is UNLV primed to steal the big and take the last spot in the event? The Runnin’ Rebels are one of two teams in the Mountain West with zero fear of the Broncos, having nearly upset Boise in the first meeting.

UNLV held the lead in the fourth quarter, succumbing 29-24 in a game that was there to win until an ill-timed penalty. UNLV managed to get into Boise territory late, but knocked itself into an unmanageable spot with an unsportsmanlike conduct flag. Boise forced a punt and UNLV never saw the ball again.

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And that has the Runnin’ Rebels well aware that this game is there to win. UNLV knows that it can stand up to Ashton Jeanty, having already done so once this year. That fact means a nervous spot for Boise State, as the Broncos know they might have to go to a Plan B they’ve not needed all year.

Jeanty gained 128 yards on the ground, but he needed 33 carries to do it. If the Bronco defense can’t slow down the UNLV attack a second time, that output isn’t going to be enough to hang with the Runnin’ Rebels. And there are real concerns about cracks beginning to show with Boise, given that the Broncos barely escaped from Wyoming.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, December 6 at 8 p.m.

Where: Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

UNLV vs. Boise State In-Season Trends

Something has to give here. Boise State is 6-0 on the blue turf, but UNLV is 6-0 away from Las Vegas this season. The nation has seemed to get wise to Boise State over the past few games; the Broncos have managed just one cover in their past four contests.

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As for the history, this has been one-way traffic ever since Boise State joined the Mountain West. The five-point loss marked the first time UNLV had kept a Mountain West game with Boise State under a 17-point defeat. The Runnin’ Rebels are 2-0 ATS in Boise (COVID wiped out the Broncos’ turn to host in 2020), but that was because Boise State was giving four touchdowns each time. This time, it’s not going to be anywhere near that.

Weather

By Idaho standards, this isn’t bad. Temperatures will sit in the low 40s with little wind and no precipitation in the forecast. Given what usually happens in the Gem State in December, UNLV will take this.

The Difference-Makers

There’s no question who the difference maker is for Boise State. It’s Jeanty, who’s in a two-man race with Travis Hunter of Colorado for the Heisman. Slow him down, and Boise State becomes infinitely more beatable.

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Hajj-Malik Williams did a fine job moving the ball with both arm and legs last time, but the Rebels’ two running backs also gashed Boise repeatedly when they got the ball. Involving Jai’Den Thomas and Kylin James might pay off for UNLV.

The Pick

The Runnin’ Rebels have nothing to lose and everything to gain, and they have the best run defense in the Mountain West. As special a player as Jeanty is, he can’t do this by himself and his team looks likely to lose the battle at the line of scrimmage.

Boise State might not be able to win this battle in the trenches a second time, especially if UNLV actually commits to the run. Throw in the pressure, and this feels like the last matchup in the Mountain West that Boise wanted. Colorado State would have been a more favorable draw. This could be a surprise.