United States vs. Bolivia Expert Pick and Prediction – June 23, 2024

UNITED STATES VS. BOLIVIA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 23, 2024 — It’s hard for the United States to have gotten a better draw for Copa America. Not only did the Americans land one of the weakest groups in the tournament, but they open with the weakest side in the tournament in Bolivia. The Bolivians haven’t won a match in the Copa America in nine years, losing 10 straight in the tournament.

Bolivia sits 85th in the world, and La Verde is the definition of a home pitch hero. When Bolivia plays at elevation in La Paz (about 12,000 feet above sea level), it’s a difficult side to beat. When La Verde comes down the mountain, it’s pretty much hopeless. The last time Bolivia avoided defeat in a competitive match outside Bolivian soil came in Nov. 2020 at Paraguay. The last time they got a result with fans in the stands was at the 2015 Copa America over Ecuador.

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But it gets worse. That win is Bolivia’s only victory in the Copa since 1997, and that has spanned 29 matches. They haven’t beaten the Americans since 1996, losing the past two meetings by a combined 7-0. So the chances of a U.S. defeat here are pretty slim.

And that means the pressure is entirely on the Americans. With Bolivia and Panama in Group C, anything less than an appearance in the quarterfinals will be seen as a colossal failure. If the Americans find a way to botch this, coach Gregg Berhalter likely pays with his job. This marks the only chance the U.S. has to test itself before the 2026 World Cup (it qualifies automatically as host and won’t play any qualifiers), so progress is paramount. That means beating up on a very weak Bolivia side is a must.

Kickoff

Teams: United States vs. Bolivia

When: Sunday, June 23 at 6 p.m. EST

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

TV: FOX

Spread: United States -2/Bolivia +2

Moneyline: United States -500/Bolivia +1400/Draw +600

Totals: Over 2.5 (-160)/Under 2.5 (+130)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 22nd, 2024 

Scouting United States

Finding the right attacking option will make the rest of the tournament much easier. The U.S. needs to use this match to see what pieces go where. Bolivia isn’t good enough to really test the Americans’ defense-in-progress, so the U.S. can afford to press the issue.

Tyler Adams, Gio Reyna and Weston McKinnie should be able to boss the midfield and generate scoring opportunities. The biggest question is how aggressive the Americans want to be.

Scouting Bolivia

An already bad situation for Bolivia got worse when Marcelo Moreno retired from international competition. Moreno was Bolivia’s leading scorer with 31 all-time goals, and there’s no replacement on the horizon. The entire Bolivian roster has a total of 23 international goals, led by Rodrigo Ramallo’s seven.

Miguel Terceros might be a star of the future, as he scored his first international in Bolivia’s 3-1 loss to Ecuador in Philadelphia. He’s just 20 years old, and the rest of his team isn’t up to his level. Twenty of Bolivia’s 26 players compete in the Bolivian league, and midfielder Boris Cespedes is the only player who plays in another nation’s top league. This side just isn’t up to par.

Best Bets

United States Win and Over 2.5 Goals (-135): There’s no value on the win to nil possibility. You’d have to take -185 odds for that, and the U.S. back line isn’t good enough to justify those odds. The better odds come with expecting the Americans to breach a weak defense multiple times. Four of Bolivia’s past five defeats saw three goals for the opposition, so this makes sense.

United States ML 30th Minute (+105): Full disclosure: I’ve never played this bet before. It’s essentially the same as a first three innings bet in baseball, as you’re splitting the match into thirds. It makes sense here. The U.S. will want to take advantage of having the crowd on its side. It has scored in the first 30 minutes in six of its past 11 matches, and Bolivia have conceded in the first half-hour in consecutive matches.

United States 3-0 (+450): Three seems to be the magic number for Bolivia. La Verde have allowed exactly three goals in four of their past six matches. The U.S. likely isn’t going to look as good as fans would like, but it should have a comfortable scoreline here. This should be one-way traffic.