UGA vs. Texas Preview and Prediction
Top 5 Showdown in Austin
The last time UGA and Texas met, the Longhorns defeated the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl, prompting QB Sam Ehlinger to give the meme-worthy “We’re baaaaack!” Quote after the win. Texas was not back, yet. Read UGA vs. Texas preview ansd prediction below.
Now they are.
Texas is undefeated at 6-0 with a double digit margin of victory in every game for the first time since the ‘60s. The top team in the country has taken down Michigan and rival Oklahoma in comfortable fashion, while also making sure that lesser opponents don’t hang around to make games competitive. Even with starting QB Quinn Ewers missing some time, the Longhorns did not miss a beat while Arch Manning played in his absence. Every single team in the nation has looked vulnerable at some point this season except Texas.
Now, the Longhorns have a chance to solidify their place as a top team in the SEC and the top program in college football with a win. If they knock off the Bulldogs this week, that means they’ll have beaten both Alabama, UGA, Michigan, and Oklahoma in two years. This is their chance to knock Georgia down a peg or two as the program that has been the most dominant in the last three years.
Limping Dawgs
UGA limps into this game literally and figuratively. With poor performances against Kentucky and Mississippi State, UGA fans are getting restless with a football team that lacks the typical indicators of a Kirby Smart coached program. Discipline, on and off the field, has been a persistent issue. Execution has been erratic.
The ceiling on this team is still very high, but the floor is also frighteningly low considering the talent on the roster. Of course, the injuries haven’t helped either, with UGA’s starting center banged up. Their best defender, Mykel Williams, has been banged up since week 1. UGA will be without their top linebacker and offensive lineman for this game. They hope to get DL Jordan Hall back for some snaps for the first time this year. Whoever lines up against Texas, they need to find the consistent performance they’ve been lacking this year. There’s little room for error in this matchup.
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Texas Playmakers
Texas has plenty of playmakers, but I want to highlight the scheme first. Part of what makes Sarkisian such a great offensive mind is that he can beat you in a variety of ways. Texas has a run game that can attack you with a variety of concepts. While many teams do 2-3 styles of run scheme, Texas does like 6.
They are particularly effective at running outside zone, a scheme that’s hard to defend and UGA has struggled with in the past. Their offensive line, particularly at center and left tackle, is stout, and despite missing key running backs due to injury, Texas uses a trio of backs effectively in their attack.
Sark also varies passing game concepts quite well, using the screen game and making adjustments as he reads the defense during the game. Oklahoma has a top 10 defense in this league, and Texas has no problem scoring against them even as Ewers struggled his first game back from injury. They know how to score, can do it a variety of ways, and if you get behind they will make you pay.
Weapons
Texas also boasts a number of weapons on the outside, with WR Isaiah Bond, an Alabama transfer, being their most explosive threat. Bond is dealing with an injury but should be good to go as of this writing. A true freshman diced up the UGA secondary, and Texas has their own version of that in WR Ryan Wingo. Wingo is a big body who is dynamic after the catch. TE Gunnar Helm also regularly gets involved in the passing game.
Defensively, Texas is the number one scoring defense in the nation, averaging less than a touchdown per game given up. The offenses they have played have been anemic with Mississippi State at 75th offensively being the toughest challenge they have faced. Of course, their defensive dominance has contributed to their opponents having such poor offensive statistics. LB Anthony Hill is a stud and can get to the QB. Last year, Texas’ secondary was a glaring weakness, but so far they’ve had no issues. While QB Carson Beck will bring a new level of competition they haven’t seen yet, the Longhorn defense has stifled everything that has come their way.
The Dawgs
UGA seems to have something figured out offensively. The second half of the Bama game sparked QB Carson Beck into action. UGA showed a number of new wrinkles in the offense last week and put up 600 yards against Mississippi State. Beck has to bring his best for the Dawgs to succeed in this game.
UGA’s offensive line has been up and down so far this year, particularly with performances at the tackle positions. I’m not sure if third stringer Drew Bobo will start at center for the third straight game of if Jared WIlson will return from a foot injury. LT Earnest Greene has struggled this year as well as the two players, Xavier Truss and Monroe Freeling, that UGA rotates in at RT.
The Offense
Offensively, there’s one weapon that UGA has consistently relied upon and it’s RB Trevor Etienne. He’s gotten more involved in the passing game lately. While he hasn’t rattled off any massive runs, he regularly takes a 2 yard run into a 7 yarder, or a 7 yard run into a 15 yard run. He and WR Dominic Lovett are the two guys who can make almost anyone miss in the open field. WR Arian Smith continues his boom-or-bust performances.
Last week was a prime example. Smith had 3 drops, including dropping a touchdown pass and another explosive play. He still managed over 130 yards. Smith dropped a deep shot in the first drive against Alabama. He can’t afford to do so against Texas. TE Lawson Luckie has emerged as a contributor this year, and he’s been the guy to fill the massive shoes left by Brock Bowers’ absence.
The Defense
Defensively, UGA’s defensive line had put in some strong performances this year, a noticeable improvement from last year. DL Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins has been a force this season and has shown a consistent ability to beat his man and get to the QB. Christen Miller has been an impressive run stopper. LB Jalon Walker presents UGA’s best pass rush with a phenomenal speed rush that can terrorize slow offensive tackles.
Their linebackers have had some inconsistency and their secondary has been remarkably inconsistent. It appears that taking shots in one-on-one matchups against UGA’s DB’s is a winning formula, no matter the competition.
Watching one of the worst offenses run by a freshman QB make explosive passes again and again on the UGA secondary last week was a frightening preview of what could happen against Texas. UGA will need to have far, far better eye discipline in reading and reacting to Sark’s motions and offensive scheme than they have shown in the last two weeks.
Prediction
There is little to nothing on paper or on tape that suggests UGA will win this game. Texas has performed far more consistently, has all the talent, and is at home. It’s no wonder they sit as a 5 point favorite over the #5 team in the nation. UGA’s offense has started every game slowly, their defense has a vulnerable secondary and a tendency to make untimely penalties that extend derives and surrender points.
I can think of really only one thing that UGA has in advantage over Texas this year, which is that UGA has already been battle tested for 4 quarters. They fought with UK and against Alabama, both on the road. They should be able to take a punch from Texas and not flinch. Texas hasn’t been pushed for 4 quarters and sometimes that’s a hard switch to flip. Think back to last year’s SEC championship game. UGA was the better team. Alabama was more inconsistent by far, but because they had to fight and strain far more than UGA, they out-performed the Dawgs that day.
While UGA has all the pieces needed to win this game, their performances haven’t been up to snuff so far this season. It doesn’t seem likely that against the #1 team on the road that UGA will suddenly put it all together for a great performance. It’s possible UGA wins this, but I think Texas has too much talent and too diverse of an offensive scheme to be stopped by Dawgs.
