UGA vs. Tennessee Preview and Prediction
UGA fights for their playoff hopes this Saturday in Athens against the #7 Tennessee Volunteers. Who would have thought that the Vols would come into this game ranked higher than UGA? After a crushing defeat at Ole Miss, UGA limps into this must-win game banged up and deflated. Tennessee is having an even better year than expected after beating Alabama at home again and defeating historic rival Florida in overtime. Their only loss comes against Arkansas on the road. Let’s break down this game. Read more UGA vs. Tennessee preview and prediction.
This is not the Tennessee team you’re probably thinking of from the last few years. Under Josh Heupel, the Vols have been an uptempo, gimmicky offense. They spread out defenders from hash to hash to create space for their running backs to work. They were known for their deep shots and dynamic passing game, but in reality they were a run-first team. The defense was a liability.
New Look Vols
Now, the Vols look significantly different. It’s not that the offense has changed entirely, but they have become less about speed and deep shots and more about power runs. The best player on this offense is RB Dylan Sampson, a 5’11 junior from Baton Rouge. He’s already amassed over 1100 yards and 20 touchdowns this year. He is the engine behind this offense without a doubt. Highly touted QB Nico Iamaleava has been up and down this season.
He has only thrown for 11 touchdowns with 4 INTs. However he also is a natural runner, who sees the field well and must be accounted for by defenses. His most effective game running the ball came against Alabama. At receiver, Tennessee has several weapons at receiver, but they, like the UGA receivers, haven’t lived up to the hype so far this year. Bru McCoy and Squirrel White are dangerous. White is incredibly fast and can create a major mismatch in the slot against Malaki Starks or Joenel Aguero. Dont’e Thornton, who is questionable for the game, is coming off of a 70+ yard touchdown and has been the most productive receiver this year.
Tennessee does a great job of using tight ends in the run game. They are great at blocking, and the H back basically becomes a fullback. Sampson is able to sneak through slivers of space to create big gains. For UGA fans, you’ve seen RB Daijun Edwards in years past find room where it didn’t seem to exist. Sampson is like that, but even better.
The big question for this offense is Nico’s availability. He is listed as questionable on the medical report at the moment, but Chris Fallica reported that Nico will not be in this game because of a concussion. Gaston Moore is the backup, who would be a downgrade in a couple of ways. First, Moore isn’t as dynamic with the deep ball. While Nico has struggled to consistently hit the deep pass himself, he has so much arm talent it’s almost been hard for him to place it. Moore doesn’t have the same talent and his legs aren’t as dangerous. What it does, it makes Tennessee more one-dimensional on offense and takes away a dynamic from their already impressive run game.
Vols Defense
Where Tennessee has drastically shifted from years past is in their defense. This year’s defense is nasty, with a bunch of legit dudes at every level. James Pearce is probably the biggest name on the defense with his 5.5 sacks this season. At 6’5 he has length that is uncommon for his role and is able to move fast enough to make plays in the pocket and in the flat. Arion Carter leads the team in tackles at linebacker, so you can expect to see him all over the field.
Tennessee also has a star in the making with Boo Carter who plays the nickel corner spot. He’s their version of what Javon Bullard was at UGA. Undersized and fearless. He can make plays all over the field, get you a sack or an INT. He’s just a freshman, but he’s playing at a high level. The defensive line is stout and scary, even though they have given up a couple of games where other teams established the run against them.
The Vols do an excellent job of disguising coverage on the back end. It’s part of what makes their front so scary, because QBs have to hold the ball as the safeties are often rolling and changing coverage once the ball is snapped. Carson Beck is going to have to diagnose the defense quickly and accurately, which hasn’t gone so well this year. This defense has held everyone under 20 points this year.
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UGA
The Dawgs are banged up. They have 4 running backs on the injury report, with starter Trevor Etienne already listed out. They might be down to only true freshman running backs and could possibly bring WR Dillon Bell in the backfield as they had to in emergency situations last year.
Plus, the offensive line is battling multiple injuries. While they aren’t listed on the report, they are there. Tate Ratledge, Micah Morris, Earnest Greene are all not 100%. Ratledge might not be 75%, but he’ll do everything he can to play against his home-state team. Even when healthy, this offensive line and running game haven’t been great. Now they are a shell of themselves with injuries against a fearsome front 7. This is a horrible match up for UGA unless they find a way to execute at a level they have not found this year.
Dawg Defense
Defensively, I think this game matches up well for UGA even if NIco is healthy. UGA historically has been able to shut down the run against Tennessee and if Nico is hesitant to run because of his head injury, that alleviates a major problem for the defense. I think UGA’s front should be able to keep Sampson in check, although he will be difficult to totally shut down.
If I’m Glenn Schuman, I’m getting super aggressive here and making Nico or Gaston beat me in the air. The danger is that the Vols might be able to beat you deep, and if they can you’ll be in trouble. I think you make them prove they can, which they haven’t done consistently this year, especially if Gaston Moore is the QB. UGA doesn’t need to make a ton of havoc, but they need to lock down an offense that isn’t much better than the struggling Dawgs offense. However, the Vols have shown they can be more explosive and explosive plays change games.
What UGA has working for them is that this is a home game, which UGA has had fewer than anyone in the nation. Tennessee has only had 2 true road games, one of which they lost and the other was an OT victory. Hopefully the Vols will not travel well. Also, UGA is desperate. They are fighting for their playoff hopes, Kirby and his staff have their backs against the wall. Plus, Kirby has handled Huepel in the past. The coaching and home advantage is with UGA. But the match up advantages is with Tennessee, especially given UGA’s injuries on an already inept offense.
Prediction
I think this game is a rock fight with two offenses that can’t get much going. I don’t trust Georgia’s offense at all and relying on their 4th string running back is a recipe for disaster. I think UGA’s crowd and desperation keep them in this game, but I think that the Dawgs continue to shoot themselves in the foot.
In short, I think Tennessee has the greater ability to make explosive plays on both sides of the ball. They are more likely to create a turnover and to hit an explosive run or pass. I think the Vols grind out a win as Carson Beck turns the ball over even more. Vols 20 – UGA 16
