UGA vs. Ole Miss Preview and Prediction
After last year’s defeat, Lane Kiffin seemed to have an epiphany. Ole Miss was simply not good enough along the line of scrimmage to compete with a team the caliber of UGA. So, during the offseason, Kiffin invested heavily on the defensive line in particular, bringing in major names like Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen through the portal. Plus they nabbed WR Juice Wells from South Carolina to add to an already formidable offense attack. Ole Miss seemingly has been built to win this game. Read more UGA vs. Ole Miss preview and prediction.
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The Rebs
Jaxon Dart has the qualities that have led to defeating the Bulldogs. He brings a ton of experience to the position, with plenty of arm talent. With just a few more pass attempts than UGA QB Carson Beck, Dart has accrued about 900 more yards than Beck. He leads an explosive offense for the Rebels.
He’s supported by a number of weapons who can hurt opponents. WR Tre Harris brings a large frame with explosive potential to the game. While he has been out and currently listed as doubtful, I’m expecting Harris to play in this game. The aforementioned Wells cooked UGA defenders last year before a foot injury flared up and sidelined him for the rest of the game. Jordan Watkins and Cayden Lee also can make plays when called upon.
Plus, Ole Miss boasts two dangerous tight ends. UGA fans will remember Caden Prieskorn from last year, as he had a big catch against the Dawgs. He’s not fully healthy. However, they brought in a transfer tight end as well, Dae’Quan Wright, who also is a formidable player. With Kiffin’s fast paced and well designed offense combined with a host of weapons and an experienced QB, the Rebel offense has understandably become top in the SEC.
The Flaws in Oxford
That’s not to say they aren’t without their flaws. Ole Miss strengthened the defensive line, but their offensive line is poor. Plus, due to injuries, they sincerely miss a playmaker like Quinshon Judkins at running back, who now is at Ohio State. Honestly, Jaxon Dart is their biggest run threat right now.
He tends to be used for QB draws and runs up the middle. Georgia will have to account for his legs in this game. If you recall in this match up last year, Dart was hurt while scrambling and it seemed to rattle him and limit him physically for the game.
Ole Miss likes to use 3×1 sets, playing 3 receivers on one side of the field, with a lone receiver on the other side. What teams need to do to contain their offense, is have someone who can step up and shut down that one receiver without needing safety help. This is a big game for CB Daylen Everette to shut down Tre Harris, or whoever they line up outside one on one. Everette played great against Texas, UGA will need him with that level of a performance again.
The reality is that Ole Miss is so talented and scheme their plays so well that they will get explosive plays on offense, even with a lack of a true run game. What UGA must do is make sure there aren’t a ton of explosives, and when Ole Miss does hit an explosive, UGA has to keep it from being a touchdown. UGA can hold the Rebels to field goals in the red zone if they don’t allow that explosive to get all the way to the end zone.
The Defense
Defensively, you need to know all the talent along the D line. Nolen, Umanmielen, and Pegues. Three NFL dudes. Nolen’s in the middle and commands a lot of double teams, making room for others to win individual matchups. LB Suntarine Perkins has feasted this year in getting to the QB with 9 sacks so far. This defense is great at disrupting offenses. They force a ton of fumbles and get lots of TFLs.
Georgia
UGA comes in with all kinds of question marks, particularly around QB Carson Beck. Beck has become a turnover machine in the last 4 games, with 11 picks in that span. He’s not in rhythm with his receivers on his drop backs, and he is pressing too much. Most of his interceptions are coming on early downs, meaning he is forcing it.
Beck actually needs to check down and through it away more. UGA will live and die by him for this season. If Beck can protect the ball and make some of his typical throws, UGA will be positioned well to win this game. If Beck coughs it up again and again, Ole Miss has the offense to get the Dawgs behind and make it really hard to catch up.
UGA needs to not be so dependent on Carson’s arm in this game. This means they’ll need to find a way to run the ball against the toughest D-line they have faced all year. RB Trevor Etienne should play, but will be banged up with a rib injury. He’ll have to play through pain. Keep in mind the 2nd and 3rd string backs are hurt. UGA’s offensive line, of course, must be up for the job in this game too. They will lose reps against this talented line. Plus RG Micah Morris is battling an injury and Tate Ratledge is still not 100% either.
UGA also needs their receivers to not drop the ball, a concern on the offense as well. WR Dillon Bell needs more touches, but he also has been one of the worst culprits with drops. WR Arian Smith also needs to have a big game and brings the most explosive threat to opponents.
Can the Dawgs Stop the Rebs?
Defensively, UGA is getting healthy and performing well defensively. Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker are the biggest threats in the front 7. Both can get to the QB quickly. Linebackers Raylen Wilson, CJ Allen, and Walker all need to have big games. Ole Miss will stress them in the offense and they need to make the right choice and tackle well.
This also seems like a big game for safety Malaki Starks. Starks is a first round talent who has had a number of games with 7th round performances. However, he was at his best against Texas. So, the question still remains, which UGA team will show up? If the UGA defense that showed up against Texas comes to play, they’ll be able to contain Ole Miss.
Prediction
This game is so tough to call because of how inconsistent UGA has been this year. The rule of thumb this season is that UGA will not cover because I think they only have one game this year. That gives UGA room for a 1 point win or they outright lose. However, UGA seems to be their best against their toughest competition.
I also trust Kirby Smart more than Lane Kiffin in big games. If UGA turns the bal over multiple times, I just don’t think they pull this out. And recent history tells us that’s all but a given. Still, I think UGA finds a way to win behind Carson Beck who improves but still throws one interception.
