UGA vs. Mississippi State Preview and Prediction
The Bulldogs from Athens face the Bulldogs from Starkville at 4:15pm on the SEC Network on Saturday. These two teams are at polar opposite ends of the SEC food chain at the moment. However, UGA looks susceptible due to their shaky offense and Mississippi State has proven they can hang with top talent by keeping things close with Texas for a good portion of the game. Let’s break down this match up. Read more UGA vs. Mississippi State preview and prediction.
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Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby is the new head coach for State this year. There has been quite a bit of turnover with Mike Leach passing away suddenly, Zach Arnett taking over, and then Greg Knox. Lebby brings youth and an offensive focus to the team. His demeanor is balanced and never gets too high or low. After finishing last year 5-7, State is 1-4 so far this season with losses to Florida, Texas, Arizona State, and even Toledo.
The Bulldogs have also seen turnover in the quarterback room after starter Blake Shapen suffered a shoulder injury against Florida that ended his season. Now Michael Van Buren runs the offense as a true freshman. In his first start against Texas, he went 12-23 for 144 yards and was sacked 6 times. He’s mobile and athletic enough that you can’t leave him totally unchecked on defense. He may show improvement this week since State is coming off of a bye, but he has looked like a freshman in his decision-making so far this year.
Part of what makes life hard for Van Buren is his unpredictable offensive line. They have given up 19 sacks in 5 games this year. Some of the linemen are some of the worst graded performers in the conference so far this year.
State’s best offensive weapon is WR Kevin Coleman. The Junior receiver has more than double the catches of the next receiver on the roster. State will use his speed on end arounds, screens, and more. Johnnie Daniel’s has solidified himself as the top back for the Bulldogs, but you’ll also see Davon Booth get carries in the game. Against Texas, these two carried the load, as well as Van Buren as they tallied up 50 carries in the contest.
The Bulldog Defense
Defensively, State also has concerns along the line. They are giving up over 5 yards per carry, so the Dawgs should be able to establish the runs against them. Lineback Stone Blanton leads the defense and is helped by safety Isaac Smith, who leads the team in tackles. These two are the most consistent defenders on the team.
State loves to run an up-tempo offense. With the exception of the Texas game, they love to take a ton of snaps in a game, regardless of how the game is playing out. What this has led to is a defense that seems to get worn out as games go on, and likely explains part of the offensive line’s struggle as well. It seems they get gassed as the game goes on. If the offense moves quickly, but gets shut down repeatedly, the defense now gets cooked because the players end up taking too many snaps. I would expect at some point you’ll see that same effect happen against UGA.
The Better Bulldogs
UGA comes into this game having beaten Auburn at home. Their offense this year has been inconsistent due to poor execution from all positions at various times. One day, the o line stinks. The next QB Carson Beck might be off. Another day, the receivers drop passes or bust routes. If the Dawgs can’t use this game as a tune up, their problems are worse than you think.
However, the last couple of years the offense has needed multiple games to get things sorted. Unfortunately for UGA, they just lost their only true X receiver in Colbie Young after already losing RaRa Thomas earlier in the year. This forces Dillon Bell into the X role, which severely limits UGA’s offense. London Humphreys needs to step up big time, but he’s still a Z, not an X.
The best case scenario is that UGA starts fast offensively, and is able to shut down State several times in a row in order to build a multi-score lead early on. Then they can cruise to a victory and rotate guys in. UGA still needs to get healthy before Texas, and I hope we don’t see Mykel Williams, Jordan Hall, Christen Miller, or anyone who isn’t essential to win this game so they are ready next weekend.
Because of injuries and with news on Young, plus UGA’s offense has been inconsistent all year as it is, I don’t think the ideal situation works out. It really hasn’t happened yet. I do expect a second half pull away because State gets gassed in the process.
Prediction
UGA has not covered in the last 4 games and they don’t start now, especially with a line as astronomical as 34 points. I think UGA starts slow, makes some mistakes, and Van Buren extends some drives with his legs. The Dawgs lead comfortably, but don’t dominate until late in the game. Look for Etienne and Frazier to have big games.
