UGA vs. Kentucky Preview and Prediction
The Dawgs take on their first SEC opponent and first true road game of the year this Saturday in Lexington. UGA dismantled Tennessee Tech last week while UK was shockingly outmanned against South Carolina. Read more UGA vs. Kentucky preview and prediction.
Georgia got to cruise, while Kentucky had to take a hard look in the mirror. Let’s take a look at what UGA faces this week against the Cats.
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Familiar Faces
UGA fans will recognize Kentucky’s QB from their own roster. From Athens, Brock Vandagriff transferred out from UGA to seek more playing time. While some thought he would head to Auburn, UK was his ultimate destination. Vandagriff is a former 5 star recruit who has never hit his potential.
He attended a small private school in Athens and dominated the competition. Making the jump to the SEC has not been easy for him. It appears that he hasn’t fully learned how to read a defense or how to layer his passes consistently. Brock is a dynamic athlete meaning he can make you pay with his legs and has a strong arm. His biggest issue is decision making in the moment and the fact that his offensive line might be atrocious. More on that later.
UGA also will remember #10 who now dons #2 for UK. Jamon Dumas-Johnson aka Pop also transferred out last year. Pop drew a lot of criticism last year in the linebacker spot. He lacks speed, plays a little over the ideal weight for a UGA inside backer, but makes up for it with instinct and leadership. However, when Pop read a play wrong he lacked the physical traits to make up for his mistake.
He’s a liability in coverage as well. So, UGA looked to CJ Allen who brought more athleticism to the role as the season went on. While it is difficult for UGA to part ways with a great team leader, it appears the separation was mutually beneficial. Pop was losing playing time at UGA and could go make more money and seek more time at UK. Both parties were happy. The Dawgs will not want to run right at Pop, as he’s about as good at filling holes and playing his assignment as anyone they’ll face.
Missing in Action
UGA has some significant injuries, but nothing really different than last week. DL Mykel Williams will not play in this game in an effort to have him ready for Alabama in two weeks.
DL Warren Brinson is also out alongside DL Jordan Hall. Ultimately, the Dawgs again will be very thin on the defensive line. Christen Miller and TID have done an excellent job holding things together. The good news is that Oscar Delp and Nate Frazier are good to go after picking up minor injuries last week.
UK Offense
There’s not a lot of positives to say here. Vandagriff passed for 30 yards last week before ultimately being replaced. Their offensive line was so porous against SCAR that the entire offense fell apart. UK has some weapons on the outside in Dane Key and Barion Brown, but they can’t protect the QB long enough for them to make explosive plays.
My assumption is that UK will try to play more of the quick game this week in light of how bad they protected last week. They still are trying to maintain their offensive identity. They use 12 personnel a lot and want to physically dominate you and run the ball well. UGA will likely respond with a mush rush.
They’ll take away the run and let Brock try to beat them with his arm. I expect he’ll hit one or two big plays but that’s probably about it. I hate to be so negative, but the UK offense doesn’t give a lot to concern UGA. A new OC with a new QB and a poor OL is a bad recipe.
UK Defense
The defensive side of the ball is a different story. They have a couple of NFL dudes on the defense, led by Deonte Walker. Walker is a monster at 6’6, 345lbs. He eats tons of space and allows the UK defense to get creative with how their front 6/7 line up. UK will set up in a 4-2-5 and at times switch to a 3-4, which is more of their style historically.
UK will play zone defense, but will also use mixed coverages well. Sometimes they’ll play man against the X receiver, but on the other half of the field play a zone scheme. QB Carson Beck will have to quickly and accurately read the defenses cues so that he can get the ball out before Walker and Pop can get home against him. The good news is that Beck is one of the best at diagnosing defenses, so this shouldn’t be too difficult for him.
Expectations
What UK appears to be is similar to Clemson. Good defense, offense that has potential but also can look truly awful when the O line is in shambles. UGA has historically struggled in Lexington, and Mark Stoops figures out a way to get his guys to play physical and keep it close against UGA far more often than not.
I also think UGA knows they are the superior team and would prefer to not have to put hardly anything on tape that they would like to use against Alabama in two weeks. The goal for UGA is to get an early lead and then control the ball for the remainder of the game. In other words, I don’t see the Dawgs lighting up the scoreboard, and while I expect the offense to have an improved performance from last week, I still think the UGA defense will not be overly tested against them.
Weather
This is the one variable that can change everything. If the weather is just nasty against UK, I think it plays into their favor. A sloppy game where they can maybe create a turnover or two is exactly what they would want. If the rain is minor, then UGA’s offense will be able to operate without limitations and will find a variety of ways to score.
Prediction
A fast start for UGA but the second half is a snooze fest. I don’t expect a pretty game against the Cats because it rarely is. I do think the Dawgs wear down the Cats as the game goes on and handle business but fail to cover the 4 score spread.
