UGA vs. Georgia Tech Prediction
Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate
It’s Satur…It’s Friday in Athens and the Dawgs take on their in-state rivals in the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. With my age and the last decade of dominance for the Bulldogs, this rivalry has lost some of its luster. I have a friend who is a Tech fan who hates UGA more than any other team. Personally, I feel like Don Draper in this rivalry “I don’t think about you at all.” Forgive me if my fellow Dawg fans cannot understand why I consider the rivalries to Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, and even Alabama more significant in the last 15 years. Read UGA vs. Georgia Tech prediction below.
However, Tech has made the games closer than I’d like last the past two years, and they surely would love to play spoiler to UGA’s playoff hopes this season. Let’s break down this matchup.
Jackets
The ramblin’ wreck come into this game having upset Miami and squeaked by a hapless NC State team. Head Coach Brent Key has made it clear that he hates Georgia more than anything and his 7-4 Yellow Jackets have had an up and down year. They won their opener against FSU, which seemed significant until the Seminoles proved themselves to be the most pathetic P4 team in the nation.
VT and Syracuse beat up on Tech, but they have also managed some convincing wins. OC Buster Faulkner is a former UGA assistant and will be offered a head coaching job in the near future. He’s the guy that many UGA fans want to replace their OC, Mike Bobo, with. Defensively, Tech has improved from previous seasons under Key and have been able to keep them competitive in most games.
The Two QB System
Tech is playing with 2 QBs. The starter has been Haynes King, who faced the Dawgs last year and previously played for Texas A&M. King is definitely a threat with his legs, but right now that’s about all he’s a threat to do. He is nursing a shoulder injury that makes it so he can’t throw very far.
So when he’s in the game, UGA has to respect his legs and watch short to intermediate throws. Last year, King gave UGA fits in the run game. The other QB in play is freshman Aaron Philo. Philo broke the record for passing yards in high school in Georgia and burst onto the scene in the Miami game.
Philo can throw but you have to respect him running the ball too. He also has freshman moments himself, and UGA will need to capitalize on an errant throw or mental error on his part. I would think that disguising coverages and bringing pressure would give Philo lots of problems, if you can make sure he doesn’t break out of the pocket and run.
Philo is still holding onto the football a bit too long, which can lead to sacks and deflections. If he can get his timing right as he gains experience, this dude can be really impressive.
Jamal Haynes
Tech also boasts possibly the most dynamic playmaker of either team in RB Jamal Haynes. The 5’9 back from Georgia is a significant factor in this Tech offense. Basically, as Haynes goes, so goes the offense. When they struggled against NCST last week, Haynes was bottled up for 36 yards. He only managed 15 in the loss to Notre Dame and 25 in the loss to Louisville.
However, the more carries he gets, the better he becomes. He got 19 carries twice, against Duke and UNC, notching over 120 yards in both games. He also is a threat catching the ball, and I expect UGA to have some difficulty covering him in the passing game as their linebackers have been vulnerable to backs who can catch and run. Haynes was a receiver under Geoff Collins, but Brent Key saw his ability and moved him to RB so he could get more touches.
Eric Singleton
Tech’s best receiver is Eric Singleton, who can also make plays from the backfield. He’s got 18 carries this year, so they’ll use him on end-arounds. Singleton finished just shy of 100 yards last year against UGA and is a deep threat at all times. He’s one of those guys who Faulkner will dial up some winners for him.
He’s almost certainly going to create explosive plays and UGA will have to limit him on those. The other main target for Tech is Malik Rutherford. He’s small, like Haynes, at only 5’9, but he leads the team in receptions. So Tech’s playmakers lack size, but they are dynamic with speed and agility.
The Scheme
Schematically, Faulkner does a great job of disguising what he’s going to do. He’s able to use the same formation and run a variety of plays off of the same formation and pre-snap motion. In fact, they love pre-snap motion to get the defense into mismatched situations. So much so, that Tech’s offense may be a little too dependent on it.
Their home vs. away splits are concerning. While it’s not easy to play on the road, part of the challenge is because all of the motion and pre-snap movements become really challenging. In other words, UGA’s crowd must make an impact on this game to limit the Tech offense. Faulkner is great at adjustments during the game, so if UGA has success defensively early, Tech can still adjust and make plays.
UGA will also need to make sure that it can defensively do what they have done to Tennessee the last couple of years, which is stop the runs in the box without having to fill it with players. For example, UGA stuffed Tennessee’s run game with 5-6 guys in the box even when the Vols had 7-8 guys in the box. They’ll want to do the same thing against Tech.
One player that Tech will put a lot of pressure on is the nickel corner, or the Star position in Glen Schumann’s defense. This role has been filled by a few guys this year. Joenel Aguero has been used against run heavy teams. Safeties Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson have both filled the Star role this year as well. Tech will put Singleton in the slot and run him deep a LOT. UGA will have to find a way to cover that consistently.
A weakness in the Tech offense is their offensive line. It seems like they are having to scheme around that weakness on a regular basis.
Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.
Dawgs
UGA will likely be missing one of their best defensive linemen in Christen Miller. His absence will definitely be felt in a game where UGA must stop the run. It also appears that UGA will still be down 3 running backs for this game as well, although Branson and Rodrick Robinson are slowly working their way back.
Carson Beck will need to continue to protect the ball and provide some explosive plays for the UGA offense. Tech’s secondary has been suspect this year. However, they will use man defense, which UGA has struggled against at times this season. UGA has to have some guys break open and have playmakers like Arian Smith keep the Tech secondary preoccupied so the run game can open up.
RB Nate Frazier looked as dangerous as ever last week. Look for him to make some impressive runs again against the Yellow Jackets. Tech has done a good job in limiting other teams in the run this year.
Prediction
I tried to get clever last week, thinking that Kirby would break his streak of not covering games when favored by 35+ points. I was wrong. So, here’s the stat that should direct you in this game.
UGA has not lost at home since 2019. 30 straight home wins. A night game in Sanford with the playoffs on the line. UGA needs this one and has the home field advantage, while Tech has struggled on the road and hasn’t faced an intimidating road environment.
This game will follow the pattern of the last two years: closer than you want, but UGA will mostly control the game. Dawgs win as they pull away late but don’t cover the 20 point spread.
