UGA vs. Florida Preview and Prediction
For the last time in Jacksonville, at least for a couple of years, the Dawgs and the Gators will face off in one of college football’s best rivalry games. For the first time, the game will be called by Kirk Herbstreet and the ESPN crew at 3:30pm. The Dawgs enter into the game as 16 point favorites, as both teams seem to be improving. UGA comes off of upsetting Texas and Florida manhandled Kentucky and barely lost in overtime to Tennessee in their previous two games. Let’s take a look at this year’s matchup. Read more UGA vs. Florida preview and prediction.
The Gators
With QB Graham Mertz out of the season, 5-star freshman DJ Lagway has taken the helm for Billy Napier’s Gators. He has brought a level of explosivity and maturity to the roles that is highly uncommon for a freshman. Lagway is 6’3, 240lbs, has a rifle for an arm, and is surprisingly quick for a player his size.
For comparison, that’s a couple inches taller and a few pounds heavier than both of UGA’s starting inside linebackers. Lagway has shown an ability to step up in the pocket under pressure and keep his eyes downfield when plays breakdown. Carson Beck hasn’t managed to consistently do that yet. So, the challenge for the UGA DB’s will be covering but then continuing to cover as Lagway extends plays with his legs and looks to hit a deep shot.
Lagway’s Targets
His favorite targets are Eugene Wilson and Elijhah Badger. For UGA fans, compare Badger to Arian Smith, in that his straight line speed makes him a scary deep threat. For Wilson, think Dominic Lovett. He can beat guys one on one, and is scary with the ball in his hands. Unfortunately, Wilson will miss this game due to injury. Lagway will likely look to Chimere Dike, who can be plenty explosive in his own right, instead.
Also keep your eye on the top two running backs from Florida, Senior Montrell Johnson Jr. and Jadan Baugh. Baugh has flashed at times as a freshman, and is coming off his best game with 22 carries for 106 yards against a stingy UK defense. Johnson has shown greater consistency against top competition, but his experience as a senior has certainly helped with that. He is questionable for the game.
Florida’s o-line doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. They run outside zone a good bit, like Texas does. Stopping the run will be a major priority for the Dawg defense, as Napier likes to take most of his explosive shots on play action calls.
The Defense
Defensively, Florida like to play a lot of guys but they probably shouldn’t rotate as much as they do. Not all of them are ready for consistent SEC play. CB Jason Marshall is out for this game, and he is tied for the team lead in passes defended this year. There are two guys on this defense who always stand out to me. One is linebacker Shemar James. He stands out because he is a really promising linebacker in his second year and because UGA desperately wanted him on their team. The other is DL Desmond Watson because he is 450 lbs. That’s not a typo. Now, Watson isn’t that great, but when you see #21 rumbling around on Saturday realize his probably the biggest human you’ve ever seen on a football field.
Florida’s defense does really well in the first quarter. Their problem is that they don’t adjust what they are doing very often during the game. So offenses adjust to what they’re seeing, but the defense usually doesn’t counter. Teams tend to score a good bit in the second half against Florida. While the offense is a threat, especially with Lagway’s explosive ability, the defense is average.
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UGA
In order for this game to go smoothly, UGA needs to buck their trend of starting games slowly and Florida’s ability to stop teams early. Carson Beck needs to stop turning the ball over, even with one of his more dynamic receivers, Anthony Evans, out for the game.
Hopefully, RG Tate Ratledge will be back for this game to provide leadership and stability to the offensive line. RB Trevor Etienne will want to prove something against his former team, and nothing will help UGA’s offense more than getting the run game established early against this defense.
Defensively, UGA is getting healthy and showed against Texas just how devastating they can be. However, two key playmakers are suspended for the first half in safety Dan Jackson and DB Joenel Aguero.
Plus, Lagway can run and Quinn Ewers can’t. The reason why UGA stifled Texas’ offense was because they stopped the run, got Texas into 3rd and long situations, and then could rush guys with completely uninhibited by the quarterback’s athleticism. They won’t be able to be so aggressive against Lagway and the Gators. Expect Florida to his a few explosives on this defense, but also expect Lagway to look like a true freshman at times against this team.
Prediction
I think this game is close in the first half, but I also think it may be a little bit like the Mississippi State game for UGA. I think they’ll get rolling in the second half offensively, and while the game won’t be a blowout, they’ll feel in control for the majority of it. Unless Carson Beck has multiple turnovers (and at this point that wouldn’t be shocking) UGA should take care of business in this game. I think the line is accurate here, but I’m going to say UGA doesn’t cover here, simply because the offense continues to show so much inconsistency.
