UGA vs. Clemson Preview and Prediction

We are so back. College football is really back and this Saturday starts off with a top 15 matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs facing the Clemson Tigers in Atlanta at noon on ESPN. Read more UGA vs. Clemson preview and prediction. 

I’ll be honest, I have overlooked this game when considering the other major games on UGA’s schedule: at Texas, at Alabama, and at Ole Miss have taken the majority of my attention and concern.

In my mind, a win against Clemson was a foregone conclusion, likely in blowout fashion. Now, I’m not so sure. Let me break it down for you.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Clemson Offense

Dabo’s Tigers bring back QB Cade Klubnik from last season. Klubnik is in his 3rd year at Clemson, his second truly starting. He posted 2844 yards last season with a 64% completion rate. Yet he’s athletic enough to run the ball and shows an ability to escape a crowded pocket. He was Clemson’s 3rd leading rusher last year with 125 attempts. Klubnik seems to have plenty of talent and athleticism, and yet doesn’t quite seem to be clicking on all cylinders in Garrett Riley’s offense.

He seems to be more comfortable throwing on the move than staying in the pocket and letting it rip. In fact, Klubnik had a below average yards per attempt last year, meaning that he really doesn’t push the ball downfield in his throws.

Best case scenario for Clemson, Klubnik is able to clean up some of his mistakes from last year by reading the defense correctly and cutting down on his 9 INTs from last season. If he can throw more vertically with some success, it will open up the Clemson run game. 

Speaking of that, put me in the Phil Mafah fan club. The 230 lb. Senior from Georgia is a force to be reckoned with. Last year, it seemed that Clemson’s offense would sometimes be more effective with him running the rock over Will Shipley.

Mafah is a bruiser, but also has enough speed you need to be careful with him. He managed 13 TDs last year and just fell short of 1000 yards. He’s able to catch a couple of balls out the backfield each game as well, but isn’t a home run threat in that regard. 

Clemson doesn’t have a major threat on the outside. One key difference between Clemson’s recent programs and their championship winning programs is that Clemson historically has 1-2 absolute studs at receiver who can go make a play when needed. Lately, that’s not the case.

There’s no proven commodity at receiver for the Tigers, at least not to the caliber of Tee Higgins or DeAndre Hopkins. They do bring a lot of size to the position and a couple of exciting freshman. Keep an eye on TE Jake Briningstool who made some key plays in big games for the Tigers last year. He was able to carve up Kentucky for 91 yards and had touchdown receptions against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. 

The big question mark on offense for Clemson is their offensive line. Last year, the were porous while dealing with injuries. They bring a ton of experience to the room and some key guys are getting healthy.

With new OL Coach Matt Luke, the Tigers need to take a big step forward in their protection this year over last year. The tape on the Clemson O line from last year should have the UGA defense licking their chops. Will they take a step forward now they are healthy? Or will they show the same inadequate results against a dangerous defense? Clemson’s line must keep Klubnik upright and give Mafah room to run. 

Scheme

Clemson loves to run counter, and they will pull guards and use H-backs to create a numbers mismatch in the box. When they execute their blocks well, they can be explosive in the run game, especially given that Mafah is a load to bring down in a solo tackle. UGA safeties Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson will need to be ready to attack the run and help solve the numbers problem in the run game. 

Klubnik doesn’t have a plethora of weapons to choose from. Ideally, Clemson pull up safety help to stop their ground game and Klubnik can throw vertically on defenses. Unfortunately, no one has shown they can burn a corner or a safety on their roster with consistency. So Klubnik often results to back shoulder throws to his receivers instead. Again, if Klubnik can get someone open deep, their offense dynamic changes entirely. 

While I expect this offense to improve over last year, I also struggle to see it marching down the field consistently against UGA’s defense. Just not enough weapons and too many questions on the O line. 

Clemson Defense

Clemson’s front 7 will be one of the most talented UGA will face all season. As has become typical for a Clemson team, their defensive line has some studs on it, led by Peter Woods. UGA’s defense will have to make sure they know where Woods is at all times. Expect him to move around on the line a bit to take advantage of a matchup at center or right tackle against UGA.

LB Barrett Carter is another name to know. Carter would have been drafted in the first 3 rounds last year but chose to return for another season at Clemson. The North Gwinnett High graduate was highly desired by UGA as a high school student, but Clemson was able to steal him away from the in-state favorites.

Clemson also has a promising linebacker in Sammy Brown who is from just outside of Athens. He immediately flashed in Clemson’s spring game with his speed and ability to rush the passer. With the talent in this unit, I expect the Tiger front 7 to give UGA’s offensive line all that it can handle.

Simply put, if UGA can handle Clemson’s front 7 consistently, Clemson is toast. However, I expect Clemson to cause some havoc for UGA in this game on the defensive front. Clemson will also need to prove it can hang with Georgia beyond just their starters. The defense lost a lot of good players from last year, so the quality of their depth is in question.

When UGA can rotate NFL caliber players on the offensive line to give guys a rest in a game, the same cannot be said for Clemson’s defensive line. Peter Woods, as good as he is, has only played more than 20 snaps 3 games in his whole career. Can he hang for 40+ plays against UGA? And if Woods hasn’t played a ton of snaps, you know the guy behind him definitely hasn’t. 

Scheme

Clemson loves to bring pressure. They will more often than not bring 5 guys to create one-on-one matchups against the opposing offensive line. Plus, that 5th defender coming to pressure will come from a variety of positions. Part of how they win on defense is by creating confusion by bringing pressure from multiple spots.

They like man to man coverage, especially on 3rd down. They effective dare teams to beat them one-on-one, thinking their DBs can press and defend long enough to let the front guys get to the QB. If I’m Clemson, I’d go after DB Joenel Aguero, who is an inexperienced starter in the slot for UGA. 

Them Dawgs

UGA Offense

UGA returns a ton of talent on offense from last year. However, they have lost their star playmakers in WR Ladd McConkey and of course TE Brock Bowers. The leader of their offense, C Sedrick Van Pran, also went pro. What can help erase the lost leadership and production is the return of QB Carson Beck.

One of UGA’s biggest advantages against any opponent this year will be Beck’s experience. His return was a massive boost to the UGA offense. UGA returns 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line. Jared Wilson is poised to take over at center and actually provides more athleticism than Van Pran did to the role.

Wilson should be able to make an initial block and get to the second level better than his predecessor. Yet, he’ll be inexperienced in identifying blitzes, which he’ll need to do consistently to stop the Clemson rush. UGA’s has 3 NFL-caliber guards that they rotate. Tate Ratledge, Dylan Fairchild, and Micah Morris all are studs.

The weak link in the offensive line may just be RT Xavier Truss. While he has played a ton of games at both guard and tackle, Truss isn’t a consistent player. Some games he’s solid. Others he is a liability. Clemson should pick on Truss and Wilson early and often. Every other spot should be solid on the line. 

At the skill positions, UGA finds itself in an interesting position. Coming into the fall, UGA looked loaded at receiver and running back. Transfer talent has come in at running back in Trevor Etienne, receiver in Colby Young and Michael Jackson, and tight end with Ben Yurosek.

Combined with their returning talent, UGA’s offense was shaping up to be deadly. And then the combination of driving violations and fall practice injuries happened and all of a sudden UGA could be searching for answers for someone to make a play against a tough defense. 

Issues Abound

Projected starting WR Rara Thomas was kicked off the team. Young has had a hamstring injury most of the fall and I doubt his knowledge of the playbook and chemistry with Beck because he’s not practiced much this fall. Etienne will likely be suspended for reckless driving and his back up is out with turf toe. So at X receiver and at RB UGA will be using their 3rd option. At running back that is Branson Robinson, who tore his patella tendon and his ACL, missing all of last year. While he was promising as a freshman, he’s coming off an injury and hasn’t played in a year.

After that, UGA turns to everyone’s favorite walk-on Cash Jones and true freshman Nate Frazier. Jones is solid and Frazier looks like a star in the making, but both are not what UGA wanted coming into this game. Dillon Bell will fill in at X receiver. While he showed a lot of promise last season, he needs to get much better at creating separation from the defender. He has proven he can make the contested catch, he needs to shake loose like McConkey did last year to be truly impactful. 

UGA does have a couple of stars they can rely on to make some plays in WR Dominic Lovett out of the slot and TE Oscar Delp. Delp has big shoes to fill in replacing Bowers, but he is a proven threat out in the passing game and a solid blocker. Lovett is poised for a major season. While UGA has an abundance of potential talent, they need some play makers to step up in this game in light of suspensions and injuries. If UGA can’t get the running game going and can’t create separation from the secondary, it won’t matter how good Beck is at reading defenses and distributing the ball.

UGA Defense

Georgia’s defense also returns a number of starters off of last year’s team. There are two names you need to know about UGA’s defense: Mykel Williams and Malaki Starks.

Williams is a possible top 10 pick on the D-line and Starks is either the best or second best safety in the nation. These are two guaranteed first rounders in the draft after this year. Williams will rotate between the Jack linebacker and defensive end role depending on the down. Williams is healthy and now knows two positions well to provide versatility. His ability to rush the passer is top tier. 

UGA also brings a lot of returning talent to the linebacker position. There isn’t a linebacker room in America with more talent and depth than UGA’s room. CJ Allen is the leader at Mike linebacker, and he’ll partner alongside Smael Mondon and Raylen Wilson at Will linebacker.

Mondon is an experienced senior, but he may be suspended. Wilson had to step up late last year due to injuries in the role. He’s as athletic as they come, and as he grows more comfortable in the role, he will be a monster. They also have Jalon Walker who can play inside and outside backer. Damon Wilson, Chaz Chambliss, and Sam M’Pemba can all make plays at OLB. Chambliss is the most experienced, but least dynamic. If Wilson takes a second year step forward, he’ll be a force this fall. 

The UGA defensive line was a weak point in the defense last year. They are a question mark this year as well. DL Nazir Stackhouse and Warren Brinson chose to return.

However, if they cannot produce better than last year, they will be passed up by the likes of Jordan Hall and Christen Miller. Hall is out for Clemson with a leg fracture, but Miller is poised for a major game. Brinson missed much of fall practice with an Achilles injury. He’ll be ready to go, but may not be in game shape yet. Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins missed most of last year with a foot injury. When he played, he flashed, so UGA has a potential contributor at DE, but he’s unproven. 

In the secondary, UGA lost safety Javon Bullard, CB Kamari Lassiter, and Star Tykee Smith. All 3 dudes were monsters at their positions. CB Daylen Everette will take the #1 CB spot. He was picked on frequently last year, in part, because Lassiter shut down half of the field. Everette may be a weakness in the minds of some UGA fans, but second year starters in Kirby Smart’s secondary are rarely, if ever, a weakness.

UGA recruits too at DB to let a weakness last at DB. Julian Humphrey will take over the second corner with Daniel Harris to rotate in. Freshman Ellis Robinson is ready to play the moment he puts enough muscle on. His speed and technique are already SEC caliber. His body needs to fill out more. Dan Jackson and Starks will start at safety, which is a thin position for the Dawgs. Don’t be shocked if true freshman KJ Bolden gets rotated in at safety.

He appears to be the next Starks, in that he’ll earn playing time as a freshman due to his talent level. Another question for the UGA secondary is Joenel Aguero. He replaced Tykee Smith at Star, but has little game experience. He was a 5-star out of high school and has plenty of athletic ability.

He’s bigger than Smith was and probably has enough speed for the role as well. UGA demands a lot from the Star position, and Aguero will likely both make some big plays and give up some big plays this season. It’s the nature of the position and he’s a new starter. It’s another thin spot for the Dawgs on defense. 

Key Matchups

Clemson D line vs. UGA O Line. It’s strength versus strength. Who wins out? Clemson must cause a stalemate at least or they are in trouble. Jared Wilson and Xavier Truss have big roles to play in this game. 

UGA’s WRs vs. Clemson’s DBs. If UGA can get guys open quickly, their offense will be wide open for Beck. However, if Beck is pressured and UGA can’t find guys open quickly UGA will struggle mightily on offense.

Cade Klubnik vs. Cade Klubnik. Klubnik has to step his game up this year to get Clemson to a top 10 level team. 

Carson Beck vs. Heisman expectations. Beck is now settled in as the starter, but the expectations have only risen in the off season. How does he perform when he’s supposed to play like the first or second QB off the board this season? Will he show cracks in the armor? Or will he be even more deadly accurate since he’s totally comfortable with the offense? 

Prediction

I think this game is close through the first half. I expect both teams to come out and score points early with their scripted plays, but then the defenses create some stops. Clemson is able to disrupt the UGA offense who will miss their stars from last season early on.

I still don’t see a ton to be anxious about with this Clemson offense. Klubnik will have to play to a level for 4 quarters that we have not seen to this point, and they will need some guys to have incredible games too. Not likely. Instead, UGA hits some explosives on offense, taking a narrow lead into half. In the second half the Dawgs stay in control and ultimately prove too much for the TIgers. 

Dawgs win, 31-17