UGA vs. Auburn Preview and Prediction

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry is back again, this year in Athens. UGA has dominated this series as of late, and apart from a couple of flukey plays, UGA would be nearly undefeated in the last 15 years against the Plainsmen. As 23 point favorites, Vegas expects UGA to comfortably roll again this year. A quick glance at 2-3 Auburn and #5 UGA would make everyone think a blowout will ensue. There may be more that meets the eye with this matchup.  Read more UGA vs. Auburn preview and prediction. 

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A Thorne in the Side

Turnovers. That’s the story with Auburn. They could be a formidable opponent because they have a top 25 offense when it comes to yards per game. They can definitely move the ball and defenses have difficulty stopping them. The problem is they tend to stop themselves as QB Payton Thorne and his backup throw a LOT of interceptions.

In their 3 losses this year, they had 11 turnovers. Fascinatingly, Coach Hugh Freeze has repeatedly thrown his players under the bus this season for their lack of execution after losing to both Cal and Arkansas. The problem is that his scheme is part of the problem. Freeze’s teams, regardless of the QB, turn the ball over a lot.

He runs a high percentage of RPO plays, putting a lot of pressure on the QB to make the right reads, and at times, often throw into tight windows over the middle of the field. This creates plenty of opportunities for tipped passes or inaccurate throws to get nabbed by opponents. So while Thorne isn’t a great SEC QB, he isn’t helped by the offensive scheme either when it comes to protecting the ball. 

Mr. Brightside

The bright side is that Thorne looked much better last game against Oklahoma, who has a stout defense. While he did throw a back-breaking pick 6 that cost them the game, until that point he was everything you could ask him to be in the game. Fans should be frustrated by the loss, but encouraged by the improvement. 

UGA will probably look to stop RB Jarquez Hunter first and foremost. The senior running back is averaging 6.7 yards per carry so far this year. He’s also a threat out of the backfield when needed. Auburn loves to use motion and misdirection to keep opposing defenses hesitant to attack the wrong player.

Last year, Auburn used Thorne as a runner and attacked the edges of the defense really well. At that point in the season, Auburn hadn’t shown anything like that on tape, and it fooled UGA for 2 and a half quarters. I fully expect that Auburn will once again have some tricks up their sleeve. One of the ways you beat UGA is by executing plays they haven’t prepared for, so don’t be shocked if UGA struggles to stop Auburn’s offense again for stretches of this game. 

The Explosivity Matrix

Auburn is more explosive at wide receiver this year than previous seasons. They have two exciting freshmen in Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson. Both are bigger receivers who can still make explosive plays. In fact, both average over 23 yards per catch. However, the go-to receiver at Auburn is Keandre Lambert-Smith. His 6 touchdowns and 415 yards lead the team. 

Defensively, Auburn has its typical level of front 7 skill. They can’t be overlooked and won’t be pushed around. Their weakness is the inexperience they have in the defensive backfield. The secondary isn’t young, but they lost 4 of their 5 starters from last year. Plus, they’ll be missing Champ Anthony at DB. UGA should look to attack the secondary early and often in this game, and honestly, every game. 

Dysfunctional Dawgs

What UGA team will show up for the first half of this game? Will it be the team that’s shown up every other first half this year or a better version? Honestly, that will determine the course of the game.

There is a world where UGA still starts slowly and Freeze pulls out his tricks early with success. UGA gives up a couple of scores and has to come from behind to win this game. There’s also a world where UGA starts fast, Auburn continues its turnover woes, and the Dawgs have the backups in for the entire 4th quarter. 

I expect UGA to want to jump out to an early lead and to attempt aggressive plays early. I also think the offense will have to score some points early on to keep up with Auburn, so Bobo won’t be able to take a run, run, pass approach on offense. Georgia’s offense will operate best with some tempo after first downs, taking shots down the field and mixing in the run game as needed. It ultimately will mostly be about execution.

If UGA fails to execute, they’ll be in for another tough matchup. If they come out clicking, they’ll put the nail in the coffin early. I don’t think UGA can fix its offensive issues in one week. I expect improvement, but not a night and day difference. 

Treatise on Defense

I think the same will be true of the defense. I think it will be improved, but I also think we’ll have more concerns after this game is over. The reality will be that UGA’s defense is good, but DeBoer and Freeze are great offensive minds. UGA will miss LB Smael Mondon on defense in this game.

He has been ruled out with a rumored foot injury. Given that a foot injury plagued him most of last year, I’m pessimistic about his ability to return anytime soon for the Dawgs. Mykel Williams should be able to go, but I doubt he’s close to 100% still after limping around all game last week. So, the Dawgs will need big games from guys like DL Christen Miller, LB Raylen Wilson, DB Joenel Aguero, and S Malaki Starks. Starks needs a rebound game after a poor performance last week, so him creating a turnover in this game feels right. 

Prediction

I think Kirby Smart teams tend to be very consistent historically, but I’m going against the grain here.

Historically, the Dawgs have covered in the last 8 home matchups against Auburn. Smart covers the spread 64% of the time after a loss. However, if Georgia has been anything this year, it’s been inconsistent and unpredictable.

UGA wins this game, but not as comfortably as fans want. Fans want to see a fired-up, aggressive approach on offense and a defense that beats Auburn into submission. I think they get good moments from both units, but also some head scratchers.

I think Auburn sticks around for a half before UGA pulls it out with a win that still leaves fans wondering if this team really is elite. 

Dawgs win 31-17