UGA vs. Alabama Preview and Prediction

Here we go. The biggest matchup of the season so far is here as #2 UGA faces off against #4 Bama this week. Kirby vs DeBoer. Beck vs. Milroe. Williams vs. Starks. This game is a clash of the titans, the two best programs in college football in the last decade. Read more UGA vs. Alabama preview and prediction. 

Both teams come into the game off of a bye week. The week before, Alabama crushed Wisconsin while UGA barely survived Kentucky. Both teams have demolished a lesser opponent and have struggled mightily against a lesser opponent. For Alabama, they looked ugly against South Florida for 3 quarters. UGA struggled offensively for a half against Clemson and for the entirety of the Kentucky game. The question for both teams is which one will show up in Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Breakdown

UGA’s strength so far this season has been its defense, having not surrendered a touchdown this season so far. While their pass defense is one of the best in the nation at the moment, they also have not faced a threatening passing attack yet this year. Safety Malaki Starks had led the secondary and is a future first round talent.

UGA’s linebacking core is pretty much only rivaled by Alabama’s linebacking core. Smael Mondon will be healthy this year as he seeks to contain QB Jalen Milroe and RB’s Justice Haynes and Jam Miller. Last year in the SEC Championship, Mondon had a foot injury that severely limited his effectiveness. He’ll be paired with ILB CJ Allen and ILB Raylen Wilson. Allen and Wilson both were true freshmen with little experience in last year’s matchup, but I expect both to play freely and fast this year.

UGA needs, and I’m not kidding, needs, DL/LB Mykel Williams to be fully healthy for this game. Williams may be UGA’s first defender taken in the draft next year. If he is close to 100%, he will be able to both pressure Milroe and contain him from breaking out of the pocket. If UGA has to overly rely on Chaz Chambliss, who has filled in with Williams’ absence, they’ll be in trouble. Chambliss is nowhere near fast enough to contain the Bama QB. 

The X factor in this year’s game may just be LB, Jalon Walker. Walker was a major factor in the UK game, constantly pressuring Brock Vandagriff. He and Mykel are the two dudes I’ll be looking at to contain Milroe. If Alabama’s offense has to key in on one player to block each play, Walker is the best candidate. 

The Offense

Offensively, UGA has to get out to a fast start. They have failed to do so against both of their P4 opponents this year. Carson Beck had arguably the worst game of his career against UK. They were able to fool him by constantly changing the type of zone coverage that they showed. Bama prefers man defense, but will also show one kind of coverage pre-snap before changing it post-snap. Carson Beck’s ability to diagnose coverage will be key to this game.

The good news for UGA fans is that UK had an extremely experienced secondary who communicated well to make those changes. Bama’s secondary is made up primarily of transfers and inexperienced players. So while they also will show one coverage before shifting to another, they have more miscues and busts that UGA must capitalize on to create explosive plays. 

The concerns from UGA lie in a couple of area’s offensively. The OT position has drastically underperformed this year, especially LT Earnest Greene. If Greene pass protects like he has been the last two games, UGA’s offense will struggle mightily because Beck won’t have the chance to pass vertically. 

UGA’s receiving corps also needs to step up. If X receiver Colbie Young can have a big game, it will help make the entire UGA offense go. Young’s effectiveness allows Dillon Bell to move to Z, his best position. Bell has yet to make a big impact on games this year because he’s effectively playing out of position.

Bama

Jalen Milroe, Jam Miller, Justice Haynes, and Ryan Williams. That’s the story on offense. Miller is the one-cut-and-go running back. Haynes is more of a weave through traffic back, but both are averaging over 8 yards per carry. Did you know WR Ryan Williams is only 17 years old? Yeah, me too because they mention it more often than Taylor Swift during a Chiefs game. Williams has hit multiple explosive touchdown catches this year. 

The offensive line has been solid for Bama, but they aren’t really built to run exactly what DeBoer wants them to. Still, they have been effective, and Milroe runs to bail them out when things break down. Jalen Milroe is the straw that stirs the drink for the offense. Last year, Bama wanted him to play quarterback.

This year, DeBoer has simplified his reads on offense, is calling more designed QB runs, and is letting Milroe take off the moment he clicks off of his second read. It’s allowing Milroe to play more freely. Milroe still has a tendency to hold the ball too long, but his big arm and athleticism bail him out more often than not. This offense could give UGA problems simply by how explosive they can be. Kirby Smart says explosive plays and turnovers are the keys to a game, and give Bama a big advantage on their offensive ability to create explosive plays. 

The Defense

Defensively, Qua Russaw is one to watch for. Coming off of an injury, he is a guy Bama will move around to rush the passer. I expect Russaw to test LT Earnest Greene and beat him several times on a speed rush in the game. Bama’s base defense is a 4-2-5, but they’ll float into other formations with their linebacking group being so talented.

Jihaad Campbell and Deontae Lawson are both studs in the linebacker room. Malachi Moore leads the secondary as a 5th year player. However, UGA may still attempt to attack him as his top end speed isn’t elite. Bama loves to run a press man defense, which UGA’s receivers struggle to create separation against. Bama’s starters are plenty talented, but you will see a drop off when subs come into the game. If UGA can wear down the Bama defense, they’ll have a key advantage going into the 4th quarter. 

Prediction

I can see this game going a variety of ways. It wouldn’t shock me if UGA started slow again, and Bama jumped out to a 14 point lead that they never surrendered. It wouldn’t shock me to see UGA come out guns blazing before cooling off, going into halftime with a narrow lead and watching the two teams duke it out in a one score game in the 4th quarter. I also think there’s a possibility that UGA controls this game from beginning to end. No blow out, but in control to win. 

Bama is one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. They may not always click, but when they do, they are impossible to stop. Expect Milroe to make multiple big plays running and throwing in this game. However, as I mentioned, remember that Milroe hasn’t played a defense like this since last year, and even then UGA’s linebackers were a shell of themselves in that game. That could be the difference in this year’s game.

Bama also hasn’t faced a remotely talented QB yet, so their secondary is mostly untested this year. Carson Beck should test all they have, and UGA’s offense will rise and fall with their OT play and Beck’s decision making in this game. If Beck rises to the occasion as he often does, UGA’s offense should be able to create problems for the Bama defense. The same is true for UGA’s defense. Statistically impressive, but haven’t been tested yet. The secondary looks great on paper, but Milroe and Williams will be far and away the best tandem they have faced this year. 

If this game was in Athens, I would feel much better about UGA’s chances. There’s something in me that says Georgia won’t perform well on the road, at night and Bama will once again beat the Dawgs. And yet, I also think that Kirby Smart doesn’t have bad games back to back. He’s 10-0 with an average margin of victory of 20+ points after a bye week. The Dawgs need this win more than Alabama does. I think UGA pulls off the win, just barely.

Dawgs 27 – Bama 24