UFC Vegas 99 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Melissa Martinez (7-1) vs Alice Ardelean (9-6)
Returning from a 2+ year long layoff, Martinez hopes to shake the rust off and the loss from her debut. Martinez was unable to get to her kickboxing as Reed had neutralized her approach. Normally Martinez can move freely at distance then pick and choose her spots to crash the pocket or throw kicks from distance. Read UFC Vegas 99 three best moneyline bets below.
Ardelean fell short in her debut too, putting up a valiant effort against Shauna Bannon back in July. Relying heavily on her ability to bully opponents and outmuscle them, Ardelean often finds success in the clinch and grappling. She may not be UFC level, but depending on the opponent they give her, she showed in her debut that she is always live to give herself a fighting chance.
It’s clear Martinez will have the edge in the striking realm, but seeing what Reed was able to do to her in the clinch and grappling realm, leads me to believe Ardelean can be the enforcer here and rough her up in the clinch. Look for Ardelean to crowd Martinez, take her to the ground, and smother her to pull off the upset victory.
The Pick: Alice Ardelean +105
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Darren Elkins (28-11) vs Daniel Pineda (28-16)
No matter who Elkins goes up against, it’s almost always guaranteed there will be violence. Even though he cracked 40 recently, he is still showcasing that he can be successful depending on the opponent they give him. With his relentless wrestling and high pace, he can still break opponents and finish them in deep waters like he showed us last time against TJ Brown.
Pineda has not had much success since rejoining the UFC and he is still yet to pick up a win by decision in 28 victories. He is dangerous early with his submissions and aggressiveness, but often tapers off and succumbs to whatever his opponent puts on him. Always entertaining, it’s obvious the 39-year-old doesn’t care much to get to the title, but rather to always fight for a Fight of the Night bonus.
This should be a car crash from jump, but I expect Elkins to start wearing Pineda down and find a late finish. Pineda can get the job done early too, but I believe Elkins can survive then establish his own pressure and pace that Pineda will break to. An Elkins round 3 prop is always worth a stab, especially in this type of matchup.
The Pick: Darren Elkins -115
Charles Johnson (16-6) vs Sumudaerji (16-6)
After going 0-3 in 2023, Johnson is off to the races in 2024 with a 3-fight winning streak. Johnson is finally starting to let his hands go more and has found the confidence from his LFA days that buoyed him to a title for that promotion. Volume striking, slick footwork, and great defense allows him to operate at a pace and style that not many can keep up with.
Sumudaerji has not gotten his hand raised since January 2021, although he has only competed twice since then and has been struggling to get any cage time. He is a sniper of a striker with stinging power, but often falls short against opponents who look to take him to the ground, as all 6 of his losses have come by submission.
I feel Johnson has Sumudaerji covered in all aspects of this fight and I expect him to break Sumudaerji down over the first 7.5-10 minutes, before turning on the burners late. I’m not sure if that will lead to a finish, but I expect this to look quite dominant over the last two rounds in Johnson’s favor. A little chalky of a line, so go ahead and parlay him if you like, but I don’t mind eating the chalk straight up as I feel that confident in him in this spot.
