UFC Vegas 97 Main Event Best Bets
The UFC took Labor Day weekend off just like the rest of us and return this weekend with a welterweight banger. It seems the theme of the card is “changing of the guard”. The co-main event features a former champion, Jessica Andrade, taking on a rising star in Natalia Silva. Headlining duties fall upon a former title challenger and another rising star. Read more UFC Vegas 97 main event best bets.
Gilbert Burns looks to buck his two-fight losing skid as he steps into his third main event appearance.
Sean Brady aims to continue proving people wrong, stepping into his first main event slot for the UFC.
Will the veteran turn back the clock and hold his spot near the top of the division? Or will the new guard take over and position himself for a title shot in the near future? Read on to see how these 170ers match up and who will come out on top.
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Gilbert Burns
A month and a half removed from his 38th birthday, Burns is staring down the barrel of his first career three-fight losing streak. A stagnant 6-3 run to start his UFC career propelled him into a six-fight winning streak that led to a title in the beginning of 2021.
It’s unfortunate that it was against a former training partner and good friend, Kamaru Usman, but that was a great fight to showcase what kind of ceiling Burns had. Since that title loss, Burns is now 3-3 defeating guys he had a grappling advantage over and coming up short against guys he was unable to effectively establish his grappling against.
He nearly did it against Jack Della Maddalena in his last fight, but JDM set a high pace and pushed back with enough resistance to cause Burns to slow down and get finished with less than 80 seconds left in the fight.
Burns came into the UFC with a highly touted BJJ black belt but has slowly morphed himself into a complete mixed martial artist. That still doesn’t mean he can go out there and strictly strike with strikers to get the better of them, hence why we saw him look to out-grapple Wonderboy, Magny, and Masvidal.
To me I feel he has benefitted from some solid matchmaking and stylistic clashes to get as far as he did, but I don’t want to entirely take away from his skill set. I’ve long believed he’s been overrated, and we are seeing it in recent years as he faces stiff opposition.
Sean Brady
Entering the UFC with a clean 10-0 record in 2019, Brady chipped away at tougher and tougher competition to eventually earn himself a number one contender fight against eventual champion, Belal Muhammad. Muhammad put on a high paced fight that Brady was unable to keep up with and that caused Brady to slow down significantly late, allowing Muhammad to get the TKO. Brady shushed the nay-sayers in his following matchup back in December as he dominated and finished Kelvin Gastelum in the third round.
To assume Brady has a cardio issue strictly off the Muhammad fight is a disrespectful sentiment. Muhammad is known to put on a high pace in all his fights, just as we saw when he snatched the title away from Leon Edwards back in July.
Brady normally does a solid job of dictating the pace with his wrestling and crushing top pressure. He has a nasty choke game and an insane squeeze, something a former training partner of his (Paul Felder) often reminds us of. Brady has decent power in his hands, but I think he throws with such heat in his hands to eventually set up a level change to get fights to where he feels most comfortable.
The Pick
We saw a similar archetype of fight play out in the last UFC main event between a former title challenger, Jarred Cannonier, and a rising star, Caio Borralho. Borralho came out on top there, but there is a group of bettors out there that will normally die on the sword of betting veteran underdogs against rising stars.
However, I feel this will be another example of the level that Burns will not be able to keep up with. He won’t be able to out-grapple Brady and I don’t think he can replicate the pace that Muhammad set either. Lastly, I don’t think Burns has as big of a striking gap that would cause Brady issues on the feet. I like Brady here a fair bit and would play him up to -230. We will see that the top of the welterweight division is not a place Burns belongs anymore
Sean Brady -175
