UFC Vegas 96 DFS Picks
There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections. Read below for UFC Vegas 96 DFS picks.
MVP Pick
Tabatha Ricci $8,000
The co-main event is a strawweight bout between 11th-ranked Tabatha Ricci and ninth-ranked Angela Hill. Ricci is coming off a win against Tecia Pennington in May in a close fight. Hill’s last fight was a win over Luana Pinheiro via submission in May.
The difference in this fight is going to be the grappling. Ricci averages 2.99 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, while Angela Hill defends 76% of takedowns. Hill typically loses when she is taken down and controlled on the mat and has good performances when she is offensive wrestling. Ricci should be able to get her to the mat, control her there, and win minutes standing despite being competitive.
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Other Picks
Viacheslav Borshchev $8,700
Viacheslav Borshchev is fighting James Llontop in the lightweight division in the prelims. Both men are coming off a loss via submission. Borshchev has had some entertaining fights in the UFC but has only gone 2-3-1 in the promotion. Llontop has only fought once in the UFC and once on Dana White’s Contender Series, so his stats are skewed. He has a 70% strike defense, which is likely not the case because of the small sample size.
Borshchev lands 5.18 significant strikes and absorbs 4.49 significant strikes per minute with 58% accuracy. Neither man has landed a takedown in the UFC, and I expect this fight to take place on the feet, with Borshchev landing the more damaging shots.
Caio Borralho $8,600
The main event is between Jared Cannonier and Caio Borralho in the middleweight division. Borralho trains with the Fighting Nerds, who have burst on the scene. They have consistently proven their talent and solid game plans in the octagon. Borralho should implement a great game plan against Cannonier.
Borralho’s latest victory was a knockout victory over Paul Craig, and Cannonier’s latest fight was a loss via knockout to Nassourdine Imavov. Borralho averages 1.99 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is the more active wrestler. He should wrestle early against the powerful Cannonier and strike after Cannonier begins to gas.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti $8,500
Jacqueline Cavalcanti is taking on Josiane Nunes in the women’s bantamweight division as the third fight on the prelims. Cavalcanti won decisively in her UFC debut in September 2023, and Nunes is 3-1 in the UFC, with her latest fight being her lone loss in the promotion.
Cavalcanti landed 126 significant strikes in her debut against Zarah Fairn while absorbing 39. Nunes lands 5.99 significant strikes and absorbs 5.25 significant strikes per minute. Neither has landed a takedown, which means this likely takes place standing, with Cavalcanti having a three-inch reach advantage.
Robert Valentin $8,400
Robert Valentin is fighting Ryan Loder on the main card despite both men making their UFC debut. It is the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, which has produced several UFC champions since it started.
Valentin is violent and dangerous, while Loder is a wrestler who relies on control. Valentin should be able to knock him out or find a submission against the wrestler. Valentin is -166, and I will trust the oddsmakers and the film and side with the more dangerous man.
Dennis Buzukja $7,400
Dennis Buzukja is fighting Francis Marshall as the featured prelim. Marshall is replacing Danny Silva, who withdrew earlier this week. Both men will be fighting on short notice, but Buzukja has had a training camp for a different opponent. Marshall is a wrestler, but Silva is also a wrestler, so it should not change the game plan much for Buzukja.
Buzukja’s last fight was a knockout victory over Connor Matthews. Marshall has lost his previous two fights, with the latest loss against Isaac Dulgarian via knockout. The odds are close in this fight and should be a close battle on short notice.
