UFC Vegas 95 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Jhonata Diniz (7-0) vs Karl Williams (10-1)
It was a rollercoaster debut for Diniz as he got controlled in the first round against Austen Lane before snuffing out all Lane’s takedowns in round two and knocking him out. Diniz comes from a kickboxing background, and you can see how fluid and disciplined he is when he throws. He does not at all chase takedowns, often walking his opponents down and throwing combinations until one eventually wobbles them. Read UFC Vegas 95 three best moneyline bets below.Â
I will always have love for Williams for cashing as a big underdog on the Contender Series for me, but even in victory, it is showing that he is barely holding onto being successful with his grapple-heavy approach. He wrestles desperately in deep waters, hoping to keep his opponents on the defensive on the mat, but he is not much of a threat in terms of finishing.
This will be a nailbiter early, but I expect Diniz to survive the first round then start getting off on his strikes in round two while stuffing takedowns from Williams. I suspect this will look very similar to Diniz’ fight against Lane, resulting in Diniz finding a second or third round knockout.
The Pick: Jhonata Diniz +170
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Yana Santos (14-8) vs Chelsea Chandler (6-2)
Riding a career-worst three-fight losing streak, Santos looks to bounce back this weekend and earn her first win since marrying former UFC fighter Thiago Santos and giving birth to their baby. Santos is an experienced fighter who is effective in clinch positions and when moving at distance and using her reach to pick apart her opponents. She will need to lean on it all this weekend to get her hand raised for the first time in 3.5 years.
Chandler came into the UFC a little green for my liking, but she has managed to put together a 2-1 record thus far. She is a big, bullying opponent who likes to use her physicality to grind her opponents out. Her striking leaves a lot to be desired, often being open to getting picked apart and clipped. Her durability has held up well, but as she takes steps up in competition, it will be harder to get away with that level of striking.
I’m leaning on the experience and discipline of Santos over the brutish style of Chandler. Chandler could have success with her physicality, but I think we’ll see the technique and experience advantage for Santos come through, keeping her safe in those positions, but also landing effective damage from range.
The Pick: Yana Santos -145
Damon Jackson (23-6-1) vs Chepe Mariscal (16-6)
Always entertaining, Jackson has only seen the scorecards 6 times in 30 trips to the cage. He is difficult to deal with early with how aggressive he is and the level of BJJ he brings to the table. Striking is not at all his strong suit, but he throws with enough heat that opponents need to be weary of what is coming back their way. Experience is another positive he can lean on considering the level of competition he has faced over the last 12 years.
One of the most experienced regional fighters, Mariscal finally made his UFC debut last year and has since put together three straight wins. Facing the level of competition, he did on the regional scene had him more than prepared to jump to the UFC when he did. He is all action, has a great gas tank, scrambles very well, and can package the martial arts together at a very high level.
On a fight card with not many playable monyeline spots, I think Mariscal is more than capable of coming through on his chalk. This could be competitive early, but I expect Mariscal to start running away with this as Jackson’s grappling attempts start to fall short. Maybe a small play on the round 3 prop would prove fruitful as well.
