UFC Vegas 95 DFS Picks

There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections. Read below for UFC Vegas 95 DFS picks. 

MVP Pick

Danny Barlow $9,300

Danny Barlow is a walking highlight reel. He is 8-0 as a professional and has five wins by knockout, including four in the first round. Barlow is fighting Nikolay Veretennikov, who is 12-4 as a professional. Barlow knocked out Josh Quinlan in his UFC debut in the third round. Veretennikov lost on Dana White’s Contender Series to Michael Morales but is getting a shot at the promotion against a tough prospect. Barlow is extremely active on his feet and has stuffed every takedown attempt since joining the UFC. He has a four-inch reach advantage and lands over five significant strikes per minute compared to Veretennikov. Barlow should find his sixth professional knockout in this main card showcase.

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Other Picks

Karl Williams $9,000

The heavyweight division will be on display in the main event but also the prelims in a fight between Karl Williams and Jhonata Diniz. Williams is a wrestler who averages 4.75 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. All his UFC fights (3) and his fight on the Contender Series have gone the distance, with him winning them all. His cardio is a strength, and he utilizes it well. Diniz won his UFC debut over Austen Lane by knockout. Lane landed one takedown on Diniz and effectively controlled him for four minutes in the first round. Williams can exploit Diniz’s wrestling and takedown defense and grind a decision victory.

Stephanie Luciano $8,500

The first fight is in the women’s strawweight division between Stephanie Luciano and Talita Alencar. These women fought in Dana White’s Contender Series, which ended in a draw. Alencar landed four of 24 takedowns in that fight, while Luciano landed her sole takedown attempt. Luciano was able to land 87 significant strikes to Alencar’s 35. The problem was that Luciano landed 54 significant strikes and a takedown in the third round, which gave her the round, but the first two rounds were much closer. Alencar controlled her for about three minutes in each round but lost the final round 8-10. Luciano should come in with a good game plan based on the third round of their first fight.

Marcin Tybura $7,900

The main event of the night is between Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac. Tybura looked dominant against Tai Tuivasa in March, winning by rear naked choke in the first round. Spivac has been off for almost a year. He lost via knockout to Ciryl Gane in September 2023, and it was not particularly close. Tybura has the takedown defense to defend against Spivac’s wrestling-heavy style and can piece him up on the feet. His cardio is also a strength if this fight goes into the championship rounds.

Toshiomi Kazama $7,400

Toshiomi Kazama was on the Road to UFC 1 and lost to Rinya Nakamura in the championship bout. He then lost to Garrett Armfield via knockout in August 2023. It was his second knockout loss of the year, so the time off likely helped his recovery. He is facing Charalampos Grigoriou, who lost his UFC debut against Chad Anheliger. He landed four takedowns but was not able to do anything with them. Kazama has good wrestling and will not get on the mat, so Grigoriou’s wrestling can be negated, even if he lands takedowns. Kazama is much more accurate (54%) as a striker and can find enough big shots to earn a victory.

Chris Gutierrez $7,000

Chris Gutierrez is fighting UFC newcomer Quang Le. Le will have his hands full on Saturday against a veteran of the UFC. Gutierrez has been fighting for the promotion since 2019 and has faced some of the upper echelons of the bantamweight division. His last fight was a loss to Song Yadong via unanimous decision, but it was closer than it seemed. It lasted five rounds, and Yadong’s takedowns were the difference. Le is 7-0 in the LFA but has not fought anyone on the level of Gutierrez. He has two knockout victories and three via submission. Gutierrez is a -600 favorite and should make quick work on Saturday.