UFC Vegas 95 Best Bets
Surprise, surprise. Another Apex card, another generic heavyweight main event. The UFC returns to their home base this weekend and pits two heavyweights in a rematch that absolutely nobody was clamoring for.
Marcin Tybura looks to go 2-0 against his foe this weekend while adding onto his 8-2 run over his past 10 fights.
Serghei Spivac wants to prove he was too young and inexperienced in the first fight, but more importantly rebounding from a September loss to Ciryl Gane.
Can Tybura prove he is the superior fighter once again? Or will Spivac tie the series up? Read on to see how these middling heavyweights match up and who will come out on top.
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Marcin Tybura
Coming into the UFC as a former Russian heavyweight champion, Tybura stumbled through his first 9 fights, putting together a 4-5. Since then, Tybura has found his groove by winning 8 of his last 10 fights.
The only fights Tybura has lost in that stretch have come to the current interim heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, as well as top heavyweight, Alexander Volkov. Most recently Tybura dominated and submitted Tai Tuivasa in a main event spot back in March.
One of the more complete heavyweights on the roster, we’ve seen plenty of different approaches from Tybura to get his hand raised in the past. We’ve seen him look to grind opponents out with wrestling and solid top control. Striking is another aspect of his game that makes him effective.
His lack of athleticism keeps him from the top of the division, as we saw in his fights against Volkov and Aspinall. Cardio is another aspect of his game he can rely on to break his opponents and start to cruise in deeper water. If he is not completely outmatched in grappling or striking, Tybura always has a shot of winning the fight.
Serghei Spivac
Many considered Spivac a bust when he got smashed in his UFC debut, being knocked out in less than a minute by Walt Harris. He garnered respect after pulling off an upset against Tai Tuivasa in his sophomore walk to the Octagon, but then fell short against his foe this weekend, being swept on the scorecards.
Since then, he put together two separate three-fight winning streaks. In September, Spivac’s momentum was halted once again by Ciryl Gane, putting yet another speed bump in Spivac’s career.
What makes Spivac so threatening is his wrestling and top control. He is quite smothering when he can establish that top position, using well-timed takedowns to get there. Striking is clearly still a work in progress, and we saw the flaws in that aspect of his game last time out against a much superior striker in Gane.
The important part about the recent run for Spivac is the experience he is garnering that will become invaluable as he restarts his climb up the ladder.
The Pick
In their first meeting just over four years ago, Tybura found himself as the -145 favorite. Since then, Tybura has gone 7-2 while Spivac has gone 6-2. The other change also being Spivac adding 20lbs to his frame.
Now we see Tybura as the dog, as well as being 38 compared to Spivac’s 29. At heavyweight, I don’t think age is as much of an issue, especially with how these two match up. I still believe Tybura is the more complete fighter here and although it will be close in the grappling exchanges, I expect Tybura to get the better of the striking.
Cardio edge I’d also give to Tybura and I feel he can keep Spivac working enough to nullify Spivac’s grappling success. The longer this fight goes, the more I believe Tybura can pull away with it. As an underdog with as much experience as he has, Tybura is the side this weekend.
