UFC Vegas 92 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Abus Magomedov (25-6-1) vs Warlley Alves (14-7)
After a blistering 19-second knockout in his UFC debut, Magomedov has fallen on hard times with back-to-back losses. Although he holds the “Magomedov” last name, he does not grapple as heavily or effectively as the name would lead you to believe. He largely relies on his power striking style to hurt his opponents, put them away, or set up submission opportunities for himself.
Alves finds himself on a three-fight losing streak, far from the elite-level fighter many expected him to be when he initially entered the promotion. Injuries and unfortunate cardio issues have derailed most of his hype and now he is clinging onto his UFC roster spot heading into this weekend. Heavy leg kicks, big power, and a slick choke game is usually what allows Alves to get his hand raised.
I was very surprised to see the line as wide as it was and feel a lot of this has to do with recency bias. It’s important to take advantage of these spots, especially when we are getting a massive underdog price on the side that is being disrespected. I feel if Alves can showcase enough resistance early, he could put some power and pressure on Magomedov that could cause Magomedov to break. At the current price, this is a no-brainer shot.
The Pick: Warlley Alves +245
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Luana Pinheiro (11-2) vs Angela Hill (16-13)
Coming up short for the first time in the UFC in her last outing against Amanda Ribas, Pinheiro looks to bounce back against a veteran of the promotion. Pinheiro is fast, explosive, and powerful early in fights, but if she can’t inflict enough damage or put her opponent away early, her physical advantages start to dwindle and that allows her opponents to have success. Pinheiro’s success is massively front-loaded but it takes an experienced fighter to take advantage of that.
Although Hill is now 39 years old, she has shown she can still compete at a high enough level to cause prospects some issues. She is 3-1 in her last four fights with the wins coming over the likes of Emily Ducote, Lupita Godinez, and Denise Gomes. Her footwork, combination striking, and volume style is usually very difficult for her opponents to overcome. Improving her takedown defense and get ups has significantly helped her game so she can get in her zone in the striking realm.
Pinheiro will be dangerous early, that’s without a doubt, but Hill has enough veteran experience under her to deal with that and start building momentum as the fight wears on. If Pinheiro looks to grapple early and nullify Hill on the mat, that could work to her advantage the most, but I expect the volume and activity level to wear on Pinheiro, allowing Hill to start running away with this fight in deep water.
The Pick: Angela Hill -135 
Themba Gorimbo (12-4) vs Ramiz Brahimaj (10-4)
Gorimbo started his UFC career with a submission loss to AJ Fletcher but has managed to bounce back with two consecutive victories. His most recent only lasted 32 seconds as he made short work of Pete Rodriguez. Normally looking to crash the pocket to get his opponents to the mat, Gorimbo relies on a pressure-heavy, grappling style to control and/or finish. I believe he came into the UFC as a nearly finished product, so it will be difficult to envision more improvements at this stage of his career.
Dealing with a serious spinal injury over the last two years, Brahimaj finally makes his return to the cage, looking to build upon the round one submission victory of his last fight. This BJJ specialist often takes his opponents to the mat to open his fights and looks for submissions immediately. All his victories have come in the first or second round, showcasing how aggressive of a fighter he is. His striking could use improving, but he has done such a great job of finding perfect takedown entries to get his BJJ game going.
Gorimbo may be dangerous with his reckless powerful striking, but I think Brahimaj has the slicker submission and grappling game which should allow him to find a finish within 1.5 rounds. Look for Brahimaj to set up a perfect takedown and eventually work to the back to strangle Gorimbo.
