UFC Vegas 89: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Mohammed Usman (10-2) vs Mick Parkin (8-0)
UFC VEGAS 89: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – Officially riding a three-fight winning streak since winning The Ultimate Fighter season 30, Usman is looking to take his talents into the heavyweight rankings with a win this weekend. He normally showcases a low-paced striking approach with not a lot of power. Wrestling is something he can threaten with, but he is not as dominant as his welterweight brother is in that realm.
Parkin is one of the more complete heavyweights on the roster, which a lot of credit can be given to the high-level training he receives across the pond. Teaming up with the current interim heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, as well as the current KSW heavyweight champion, Phil De Fries, Parkin is training day in and day out with the best the UK has to offer. From smooth striking to slick wrestling and scrambles, Parkin is a fighter dead set on winning every time he steps in the cage.
Usman may be a tad cleaner in certain aspects of MMA, but I think he will struggle against the overall style of Parkin. Parkin pushes a pace and tempo that I do not believe Usman will be able to keep up with. Look for Parkin to take over late or find a finish in the final round.
The Pick: Mick Parkin -140
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Igor Severino (8-0) vs Andre Lima (7-0)
Making his UFC debut a month shy of his 21st birthday, Severino brings a lot of potential to the table given what we’ve seen from him on the regional scene. He has an aggressive striking style that allows him to crash the pocket with fast and powerful strikes. It’s usually the takedown he seeks to dominate his opponents from top position and find the finish. Although he has only seen the third round once in his 8-fight career, it looks like his cardio is more than capable of going 15 minutes if needed.
Lima comes from a striking background, and you can see it on full display when he gets into his groove. He throws in combinations and with such heat that opponents normally get demoralized standing across from him. Lima’s grappling is improving, as that is the realm most opponents try to challenge him in, but he may be benefitting from some low-level opposition which has made him look good so far.
Severino should be able to dictate the pace of this fight and make his style more pleasing to the judges. With his forward movement, aggressive striking style, and eventual takedowns and top control, I think he will put together a better body of work to warrant the nod from the judges.
The Pick: Igor Severino +155
Kurt Holobaugh (20-7) vs Trey Ogden (16-6)
Earning his way back into the UFC after going 1-4 in his original stint with the company, Holobaugh finished all of his opponents on the most recent season of TUF. Holobaugh loves to exchange in the pocket with big punches and winging hooks, but he also has an aggressive BJJ game once fights hit the mat. He loves seeking the finish and fights like it too.
Ogden is coming off a great performance against Nikolas Motta but was robbed of earning the victory after a mistake from the referee. I expect him to come into this fight with a fire, but still be able to stay calculated and composed against the veteran he faces this weekend. Ogden is a BJJ black belt and that has allowed him to control opponents on the mat, but it’s been his striking improvements that have made his takedown entries that much more difficult to deal with.
Holobaugh is dangerous and tough to deal with, but most can fan out his flames by taking him to the mat and grinding him out. That’s where you see most opponents take advantage of him and that’s where I think Ogden can as well. Look for well-timed takedowns, and a boat load of control time from Ogden to get his hand raised.
