UFC Vegas 83: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Rayanne dos Santos (14-6) vs Talita Alencar (4-0-1)
UFC VEGAS 83: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – Stumbling in her DWCS opportunity back in 2022 to Denise Gomes, dos Santos went back to the regional scene to pick up three straight wins. The last win in that streak earned her Invicta FC gold, which ultimately set up her path to make it to the UFC. This BJJ black belt has developed a solid striking game, so she no longer has to shoot desperation takedowns to get fights to the mat.
Alencar fought to a draw on the most recent season of DWCS and although she was not signed that night, the UFC still saw enough in her to bring her into this opportunity. She is also a BJJ black belt and is clearly one of the most respected and credentialed grapplers we’ve seen in the women’s division. Her control is tough to deal with and she is very slick on the mat with submissions and reversals.
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Last fight showed she could have a bit of a cardio issue, but I don’t think that will bother her too much if she is in control of the fight from jump without much resistance.
Dos Santos has far more experience, but Alencar has lived on the BJJ mat since she was a child. The amount of high-level experience she has from BJJ alone should have her ready for this opportunity. I think she is a worthy underdog shot here as she should be able to drag this fight to the mat and control dos Santos for an extended period.
Dos Santos could find some success with her striking, but I think it’s just a matter of time before she finds herself on her back having to deal with Alencar’s top pressure.
The Pick: Talita Alencar +140
Tim Elliott (19-13-1) vs Sumudaerji (16-5)
Jumping in on short notice, Elliott is looking to quickly erase the memory of his loss to Mohammed Mokaev from back in October. That was a fight where he surpassed the record for most takedowns in flyweight history. He also found himself up two rounds to none on two scorecards, but he ended up getting submitted in the third and snatched of that victory.
Elliott has a very awkward striking style which helps set up his takedowns behind it where he shows solid control and slick submissions.
Sumudaerji looks to return after nearly 1.5 years away from action. The last time we saw him, he was getting controlled in the grappling realm by Schnell. He had some good success kicking off the second round, hurting Schnell numerous times, but Schnell eventually got him back to the mat and found the submission.
Sumudaerji is a talented striker but leaves a lot to be desired in regards to his defensive grappling.
Although this is a short notice spot for Elliott, he does not have to worry about cutting all the way to 125lbs as he normally does. That should allow him to have way more to give in the fight. I think his grappling advantage in this fight will give him the edge.
Elliott’s awkward striking style will make it hard for Sumudaerji to muster up significant damage and it will only be a matter of time before Elliott finds this fight on the mat where he can lock up a submission.
The Pick: Tim Elliot -130
Anthony Smith (37-18) vs Khalil Rountree (12-5)
Stepping in on somewhat short notice, Smith looks to keep the momentum from his August victory over Ryan Spann. Smith showed something in that fight that he had not had in a long time: the ability to battle back from adversity. He got hurt badly in the second round but still managed to muster up enough of a game plan to win the third round and get the decision.
Smith brings a lot of experience and a well-rounded game to stay competitive at this stage of his career.
Rountree finds himself on a hot streak with four-straight victories. Although there is a sketchy decision in there against Smith’s teammate, Jacoby, Rountree’s confidence is sky high. His ability to throw in controlled combinations now compared to the reckless abandon he threw with earlier in his career has helped him become more successful.
Rountree has solid power, but a questionable gas tank, especially when he starts facing resistance and his power is not commanding the respect he needs.
For Smith, this is a similar fight to the one he had against Spann. He needs to gain the respect of Rountree by throwing in the pocket with him and stinging him with big shots. Smith could also implement his grappling to take advantage of that hole in Rountree’s game.
For a fighter as experienced and skilled as Smith, a shot at +170 is a must here.
The Pick: Anthony Smith +170
