UFC Vegas 75: Three Best Moneyline Bets

UFC VEGAS 75: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – With 14 fights on the card, people are spoiled for choice in an event headlined by a clash near the middleweight division summit. While Vettori v Cannonier will be the main draw, here are three battles that offer some excellent prospects in the moneyline market.

You can read my main event predictions here.

In this article, I’ve outline three moneyline wagers that offer great value.

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Zac Pauga (6-1) vs Modestas Bukauskas (14-5)

Pauga

After successfully bouncing back from losing in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, Pauga is looking to put together another winning streak this weekend. He was doing very well against Mohammed Usman before getting clipped in the second round, and that predictably led to a more pedestrian approach in his next bout. His whole plan was to avoid the knockout power of Jordan Wright, and instead employ minimal work on distance. That resulted in a boring fight that spent way too much time on the octagon walls.

Pauga has a solid overall game from combination striking to landing opportune takedowns and doing damage from on top. He was the favorite going into TUF but fell short right at the finish line. With the backing of Elevation Fight Team, look for him to re-capture the potential and love of the public if he can get the win this weekend.

Bukauskas

Bukauskas made a triumphant return to the cage, after pulling off the upset and defeating Tyson Pedro in his last fight. The Lithuanian went 1-3 in his initial stint with the company and was released, but then put together a two-fight winning streak on the regional scene. He even captured the Cage Warriors light heavyweight title! Opportunity came knocking again to fight for the biggest promotion in the world, and he made good on it.

He is a big fighter for this 205 lb division and has some smooth striking, but he does struggle a tad when taken down. He’s working on his get ups and takedown defense, but for the most part, I think he struggles dealing with someone who is consistently looking to put him on his back.

The Pick: Zac Pauga +165

It seems as though the UFC is punishing Pauga for such a boring fight last time around by putting him as the first fight of the night. You know who doesn’t think he’s boring? People with money on him! I hope he takes the same approach this weekend and shuts down the striking game of Bukauskas.

Pauga is fully capable of that, and I think he has a good enough all-around game to defeat the striking-heavy approach of Bukauskas. If Pauga’s durability holds up, he should be fine. And if nothing else, it’s hilarious seeing the public jump off him so quickly after the Usman fight. So we take advantage of the off line, and hopefully cash a nice underdog ticket to start the night.

Dan Argueta (9-1) vs Ronnie Lawrence (8-2)

Argueta

Having his chance on TUF 29, Argueta came up short against Ricky Turcious in the opening round of the tournament. As a consequence, he was forced to go back to the regional scene, where he put together a 3-0 run with LFA and captured the bantamweight title. A month later, he got a short-notice opportunity to go up a weight class and take on Damon Jackson, who handed him his first professional MMA loss. Yet, it’s worth remembering that TUF losses don’t count on their official records.

Argueta bounced back in his following fight with a full training camp and down to his natural weight class. He is a very strong wrestler, boasting a ton of experience and very good training partners to help him prepare for the highest level. His striking is improving too, but look for his wrestling to be the shining part of his game whenever he steps in the cage.

Lawrence

Returning from nearly a year-long layoff, Lawrence is hoping to bounce back from getting put through the wringer by Saidyokub Kakhramonov, who took the same approach Lawrence normally does. In that defeat, it was clear from the off that Lawrence doesn’t come from a traditional wrestling background. But here he can add it to his game effectively, alongside his cardio, which allows him to maintain a pace many are unable to keep up with.

His striking is wild with a lot of kicks from distance. But don’t let that fool you, as he does a great job of blending his takedowns behind his kicks to successfully ground his opponents. Like Merab Dvalishvili, Lawrence doesn’t do the best job with controlling his opponents on the mat. Ultimately, that is why he is able to land multiple takedowns per fight.

The Pick: Dan Argueta +165

I feel this could play out similarly to Lawrence’s last fight, but maybe with not as many takedowns. I expect the better technical wrestler, Argueta, to come out on top by controlling the fight for longer periods of time while landing the more damaging shots.

Lawrence is impressive when he has the wrestling advantage, I can’t say he has that in this fight, though. Seems like the love on Lawrence hasn’t really subsided even after his last loss, so hopefully we can cash on back-to-back underdog spots against him this weekend.

Armen Petrosyan (7-2) vs Christian Leroy Duncan (8-0)

Petrosyan

Through three fights with the promotion, Petrosyan boasts a 2-1 record with his most recent victory coming over AJ Dobson back in October. He was able to stuff Dobson’s takedowns and do what he does best in the striking realm, throwing in combinations, mixing up the target, and putting numbers on his opponent. He comes from a kickboxing background, but he has an amazing defensive grappling game.

I’ve also seen exceptional submission defense from him, even when it looks like his opponent has submissions in deep. However, he learned in the Borralho fight that once he takes legit steps up in competition, it may not be as easy to get up. Thus, he needs to work on keeping fights from hitting the mat in the first place.

Duncan

Duncan is a flashy striker with a ton of finishing power, as he has finished all but one of his eight professional fights. Most of them look the same too, as his opponents want nothing to do with his striking, so they try dragging him to the ground. His takedown defense isn’t too shabby, but he is also solid with his get ups.

This allows him to force his opponents to exert a ton of energy early, so he can explode on them in the second round. That means the well-honed Brit is a very exciting prospect to keep an eye on. His speed and power will be the difference maker in this matchup.

The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan -150

I expect this battle to be a striker’s delight, and it is easily the fight I am looking forward to most on this card.

After taking early action this week, it seems like the public is liking the dog value on Petrosyan, betting him down to the +130 range. Petrosyan is the better technical striker, but I feel he will struggle to get a beat on the rhythm, power, and speed which will cause him to get knocked out.

It’s also worth noting that Petrosyan has been knocked out in the past too. Thus, I feel Duncan has the ingredients to make it happen a second time.

So that was UFC Vegas 75: Three Best Moneyline Bets. I have every confidence they’ll come through, and be sure to visit DraftKings to see updated prices for all 14 of the fights on this weekend’s card!